The John Elfed Forex Blog

NFP day.

My current thoughts.

Today's trade is still in play. If I wasn't already in the market, I would be comfortable with a JPY short trade. Especially if another 1hr swing forms. Most likely against the USD, but I think the JPY is shortable against anything at the moment due

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Thursday 5 January.

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Trade photo

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Psychology lesson.

FOMC in focus.

Quite often the release of the FOMC minutes doesn't have an effect on the market. But today I've read a couple of articles suggesting it could do. Following the 'dovish twist' at December's meeting. It's been priced in that the

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Waiting for something clear and obvious.

Tuesday 2 January. European session.

The week ahead.

Weekly review.

Having taken a week off from trading, I don't have much to report for the week starting Monday 25 December. I always take at least two weeks off throughout the year in an attempt to rest my mind. Although I did read a couple of articles, and the

Weekly review

Week starting Monday 18 December: Monday was a quiet day, with all eyes tuned to the BOJ interest rate meeting on Tuesday. There had been strong speculation that govoner Ueda would signal an immediate change of policy by raising rates out of negative territory. When the meeting came and no

Soft core PCE data.

Today's PCE data came in a little softer than forecast, which is exactly what the market wanted, and maintains the soft landing narative. Yesterday's trade eventually hit profit before the week dribbled into a lackluster close. But with the S&P once again approaching all

Core PCE data released tomorrow.

Following today's 'under the bonnet' PCE data from US GDP. It is widely expected that core PCE will come in softer than expected. This should keep the soft landing narrative alive, and maintain my short USD or JPY bias over the medium term. My trade from

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GBP hit by surprise inflation drop.

Yesterday's data from the UK showed inflation dropping more than expected. This is good news for the residents of the UK. But it brings into question the future path of interest rates, and whether cuts will come sooner than planned, which has weakened the GBP. And showcases how

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Psychology: knowing when not to trade.

Currency overview.

Monday 18 December.

Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 11 December was dominated by one thing: Mr Powells surprise 'dovish' shift at the FOMC meeting. Personally, I, (and most of the market) was expecting a pushback on the potential of rate cuts next year. But Mr Powell did the opposite and actually signaled

Soft European PMI data.

Soft European PMI data takes the shine off the EUR, regardless of how positive the ECB try to sound about the potential of more hikes, the data is starting to suggest otherwise. It's a different story across the channel as positive service PMI data will keep the BOE

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