The John Elfed Forex Blog

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CPI on the agenda.

Today sees the release of US CPI data, and at the same time initial jobless claims will be reported. It is forecast that CPI will rise slightly, which I believe has been one of the contributing factors behind USD JPY's rise this week (along with poor Japanese wage

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Fundamental 4 steps. Part 3.

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Fundamental 4 step system. Part 2

A market without conviction.

It is currently another day of uncertainty in the market. Positive data from Australia hasn't helped the AUD. Flat CPI and lower consumer spending from Japan, would have on other day weakened the JPY. But it's currently the strongest currency on the day. The US dollar

The fundamental 4 steps. Part 1.

Falling oil price revives the S&P.

The decision by Saudia Rabia to cut the price of oil has brought a sense of calm to the market, Because lower oil prices will take pressure off inflation. The S&P is recovering from last week's losses, the US 10year yield is falling and the USD

Monday 8 January.

With no economic releases of note today, and the market digesting Friday's mixed data, the currencies are at the behest of the 'risk environment'. Which is mildy negative due to news that once again China's property sector is under the microscope. This has put

Market overview.

There are generally two factors that determine a currencies strength or weakness. The actual economic fundementals of each particular currency. The overall 'risk sentiment' of the market. Each currency reacts accordingly to its own particular correlation, whether that's to economic news or world events. Recently, a

Weekly review.

ISM rocks the boat.

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NFP day.

My current thoughts.

Today's trade is still in play. If I wasn't already in the market, I would be comfortable with a JPY short trade. Especially if another 1hr swing forms. Most likely against the USD, but I think the JPY is shortable against anything at the moment due

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Thursday 5 January.

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Trade photo

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Psychology lesson.

FOMC in focus.

Quite often the release of the FOMC minutes doesn't have an effect on the market. But today I've read a couple of articles suggesting it could do. Following the 'dovish twist' at December's meeting. It's been priced in that the

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Waiting for something clear and obvious.

Tuesday 2 January. European session.

The week ahead.

Weekly review.

Having taken a week off from trading, I don't have much to report for the week starting Monday 25 December. I always take at least two weeks off throughout the year in an attempt to rest my mind. Although I did read a couple of articles, and the