The John Elfed Forex Blog

Putting a name to a trade. Part 3.

Live trade

USD at a crossroads.

Cast your mind back to November 2023, when the 'FED pivot' finally happened (chair Powell's announcement, there would be no more rate hikes). Risk assests rallied strongly and the USD sold off. Then came 2024, and the start of the year saw strong data release after

Live trade.

Thursday 15 February.

During the Asian session, soft GDP data from Japan backs up possibility of the BOJ not hiking rates for a long time (if at all) but strangely, the JPY strengthened in what I can only imagine to be profit taking as traders are wary of intervention talk whilst USD JPY

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What am I looking for?

Wednesday 14 February.

Soft CPI data from the UK sent the GBP lower and was arguably an 'in the moment news trade' GBP short for anyone at the charts at the time of the release. But with GBP USD now sitting 25 Pips away from daily support, and considering the news

USD JPY.

with today's trade complete, the question now becomes: How high can USD JPY go? The fundamentals certainly back up a continued run higher. A look at the weekly chart shows the close of a swing at 151.50 as the next serious resistance. And I think whilst any

Live trade.

Catalyst opportunity.

Lower than expected GBP unemployment has given the GBP a bout of strength and created a potential GBP catalyst opportunity. Unfortunately, the best time to have taken the trade would have been on the announcement of the news as an 'in the moment' trade. But the GBP still

Putting a name to a trade, part 2.

The week ahead.

With no significant data releases on monday, we could see quiet trading until tomorrow's main event, US CPI. Although scheduled FED speakers and the BOE'S Bailey do have the potential to move the USD and GBP today. The risk to the recent USD strength ( higher for

Weekly review.

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CPI revised lower. CAD unemployment data surprise.

NZD boosted by rate hike possibility.

Live trade.

Currency overview.

It was mildly frustrating to arrive home to see today's trade stopped out before carrying on up, and I still think the near term direction of USD JPY is up. But whilst I await the next fresh catalyst to trade. Here are my current thoughts on the currencies.

Live trade

USD weakens.

Tuesday 6 February.

Services PMI on the agenda.

Live trade.

Weekly review.

Week staring Monday 29 January was certainly a down and up roller coaster for the USD. The week started with all eyes on Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Where chair Jerome Powell effectively ruled out any chance of a match rate cut. Strongly indicating May would be the month. In

Putting a name to a trade. Part 1:

Trade closed before the weekend.