The week ahead. A packed data calander with important releases from the UK, new Zealand, Canada, Australia, China and of course retail sales and company earnings from the U.S. With Israel news simmering and possibly affecting the market at any minute. I begin the week with the thought of long dollar, in
Weekly review. Monday 9 October started with JPY opening gaps in response to the awful Israel / Palestine news. Although this didn't turn into full scale 'risk off' fear, it was something that simmered in the background all week. Reaching levels of high anxiety on Friday, with the price
All eyes on CPI. Today's PPI data came in slightly above forecast, which only adds credence to the higher for longer narative. I have read a couple of articles suggesting tomorrow's CPI data may be a little softer than forecast, thanks to the decline in the price of oil. Two
Opening gap. As you may know, I always close any open positions on Friday afternoon. The reason being to avoid weekend risk, today was a very good example of why this is a good idea. The outbreak of war in the middle east caused the JPY to open with a gap higher.
Monday 9 October. US. Session. With the bond market closed for a partial holiday, the FX market is fairly quiet today. There was a mild 'risk off' tone with the JPY gapping higher at the Asian open. But the negativity hasn't materialised into fear and I'll be waiting until
Weekend news Sad to see that trouble has flared up between Palastine and Israel. With Israel promising retaliation. Horrific scenes after twenty years of relative calm in the region. Market implications: historically, the Israel Palestine conflict hasn't particularly has an effect on the market, but the fallout from Israel'
Weekly review The week starting Monday 2 October was again, mainly dominated by the strong dollar, high yields story. With a little bit of JPY intervention (?) thrown into the mix. Monday was a fairly quiet day, as it often is in Forex. On Tuesday, I tried to take advantage of USD strength
A few hours is a long time. They say a week is a long time in politics, today a few hours was a long time in Forex. The initial reaction to today's NFP was dollar strength and a softening risk environment. But once the data had been digested,good news eventually became good news and
Huge NFP beat This morning, I thought a higher than projected number would provide a dollar long opportunity. We got that, and then some, a huge beat 336k Vs 187 forecast. The dollar has reacted accordingly, yields are up, stocks are under pressure ..good news is bad news today. It's take
NFP day. As the European session gets underway, the currencies are in wait and see mode before NFP. A concensus reading could re-ignite USD strength maintaining the higher for much longer narative. Elsewhere, Canadian jobs numbers will give an indication if anymore hikes could be needed from the BOC. Next look: 13:
Where did all the catalysts go? Readers of my book will know that one type of trade I take, I categorise as a 'catalyst'. It is essentially a big move in a currency, caused by a particular event, generally a data release or political statement. Pre COVID-19, it wasn't unusual for there
Wednesday 4 October. 07:20 UK time. Still no change to the narative. USD JPY has steadied following yesterdays (intervention?) I'd still be a little wary of trading the yen at the moment though. Overnight NZD held its rate and slightly disappointed the markets by remaining fairly dovish. For me, the USD is still the
Tuesday 3 October 17:30 UK time. Another day, same old reasons to be dollar positive, with the US 10year touching 4.8%. The possibility of a hike in November has risen slightly. Stocks are down, feeling the pinch of higher rates. Even a mildly hawkish rate hold from Australia couldn't save the AUD. it&
Monday 2 October. 08:00 UK time. As the first European session of the 4th quarter gets underway. Dissapointing PMI data from china over the weekend. Japan announced unscheduled bond buying in an attempt to keep the yield on a 10year Japanese bond as low as possible. This may cause nervousness around the possibility of Japanese intervention.
Weekly review This past week was dominated by the long dollar story. Particularly the early part of the week. The US 10year bond yield rose comfortabley above 4.5%, the S&P remained under pressure, the cause being the higher for longer narative. It's always a little tricky to
Thursday 28 September. European session. A bit of dollar weakness in this mornings European session, with the 'risk asset' currencies in positive territory. I can't see any particular news to support the positive mood, it may well be quarter end profit taking. My current position is to wait for the US
Wednesday 27 September 17:30 UK time. USD strength is unabating, backed up again today by strong data (durable goods) yields are still marching higher, the VIX is above 19 for the first time in a long time. Stocks and gold are on the verge of a technical breakdown. The higher for longer narative is really starting
Tuesday 26 September 20:25 UK time. Yesterdays GBP USD trade has completed at hit profit. Nothing has changed to alter my view that the USD is the only viable long at the moment. In fact, Target announcing they will close nine stores across the US has put pressure on the S&P and adds credence
