USD JPY green light? Very interesting revelation today that the BOJ didn't intervene in USD JPY during October. Considering the occasional large spike of JPY strength, most market participants were convinced it was intervention. (Perhaps it was large pre set sell orders around the 150 mark?) The question now is how high
Cutting out all the noise. As discussed earlier in the week, there are a lot of moving parts at the moment. It's very difficult to form a sustained conviction in the risk environment. Have bonds peaked? Will the middle east flare up? Why is the S&P under pressure even though earnings
USD JPY. The dollar yen chart pops above 150 and it's currently staying above. The US 10year is once again approaching 5%. Having been written off earlier in the week, the long dollar story is still alive and well. The risk to a long dollar yen trade is JPY intervention.
Tuesday 24 October. European open. The week really starts to hot up today, the UK has already reported better than expected unemployment rate. Next up, Europe and the UK PMI data is released, followed by US PMI in the US session. The service sector numbers will be studied for hints on the future path of
Bid in bonds After touching 5% again earlier today, the US 10year yield is currently rolling over. The move comes after two high profile 'bond kings' suggested it's the right time to buy bonds. This has created a yields down, stocks up scenario. Which means 'risk on'
Trade closed. Yesterdays CAD JPY trade has closed at break even. It will be interesting to see if short JPY trades can be re-entered on Monday. Weekly review to follow. Enjoy your weekend! (Mine will be spent trying to balance watching sport with spending time with Michelle) If you have any questions,
Friday 20 October. US session. Today the market is showing signs of anxiousness. A combination of the US10 year yield touching 5% and worry about potential worsening of the awful situation in the middle east has the market on tenterhooks. The VIX is above 21 for the first time in a while. If I wasn&
Psychology: being wrong Vs making a mistake. Yesterday I got it wrong, I felt that the negativity wouldn't continue, but it did. Being wrong isn't the same as making a mistake. Yesterday I made a prediction according to the information I had and I still stand by that prediction. Making a mistake is
Extended pause? A growing chorus of FED speakers are championing and extended rate hike pause, which only adds credence to the soft landing narative. Plus strong data from china adds to the positiveity. Slightly higher than expected inflation from the UK will keep pressure on the Bank Of England. Currently, nothing has
US session. Tuesday 17 October. Easy come easy go for dollar strength today. Hotter than expected retail sales initially gave the USD strength on the higher for longer narative. Only for the moves to completely reverse once the dust settled. With the dollar index breaking below 4hr support and the S&P now higher
Tuesday 17 October CPI data from NZD came in softer than forecast, coupled with mildly hawkish AUD meeting minutes creates a slight interest rate disparity between Australia and New Zealand. Today we have average earnings data from the UK. Retail sales data from the US and CPI from Canada. Plus of course, any
