The John Elfed Forex Blog

Lack of NFP follow through buying (again).

'Hot NFP' across the board....live trade.

Friday 5 APRIL.

Concerns over an escalation in the middle east have thankfully faded and my 'risk on' bias remains intact. Over to NFP... as long as the numbers are more or less in line with expectations, the positivity should remain. And hopefully, 'risk on' trades will still be

April 4, market close.

Concerns over the middle east crept into the market late in the day, sending stocks and bonds yields lower in a 'classic risk off mood'. I'm not of a mind to play a risk off trade currently. But it does unfortunately put any 'risk on&

Time to short the USD?

After a few weeks of positive data suggesting a later US rate cut than June and possibly only 2 cuts this year... It's not taken much for the market to jump back on the 'short USD' bandwagon. And today's jobless claims data coupled with

Brokers.

Live trade

Service ISM below expectations.

Just when it appeared that even June was going to be too soon for a US rate cut ( today's ADP employment figures adding to that narrative). along came US service ISM (below expectations) and weakened the USD considerably. The recent strong data from the US means that I&

Yesterdays limit order.

Live trade.

US OPEN.

US bonds above 4.3, S&P falling (due to higher bonds plus the drop in Tesla today) the VIX has risen above 15. All in all it's a mildly 'risk off' mood. But it's not echoed in the forex market as the

Tuesday 2 April.

With yesterday's trade complete, nothing has happened to change my view. Attempts from the PBOC to sell USD CHN and the BOJ's verbal warnings has not affected USD strength. And whilst 'the market' is only pricing in 2 US rate cuts this year, I

Live trade.

The week ahead.

*Note..European daylight saving returns US ET to GMT-5. Improved PMI data from China over the weekend could underpin the AUD & NZD at the beginning of the week. Monday 1 April is a bank holiday in Europe, but US traders will be at their desks. Each week that passes

Weekly review.

A fairly muted week in the forex market compared to the central bank bonanza the previous week. But there were opportunities non the less, mainly deriving from the swiss franc. A currency I've not traded for a few years, which serves as a reminder to always expect the

Core PCE.

Core PCE data broadly in line with expectations, personal spending is up. All in all, the data keeps a US rate cut later than June on the table and I expect to still be looking for long USD opportunities next week. In other news, intervention warnings from Japan have got

Good Friday.

US GDP and Jobless claims.

THE USD'S muted reaction to positive GDP and Jobless claims (both showing a still resilient economy) suggests to me there could be some quarter end profit taking on the horizon. On the face of it, today's fundamentals suggest a EUR USD short (or another USD CHF

Thursday 28 March

Live trade

Only trade in town.

Struggling CHF.

With yesterday's USD CHF trade complete. The CHF is struggling against every currency and may continue to do so for a while, based on interest rate differential. And I think any 1hr pullbacks creating nice support are tradable. Particularly Vs USD or a buoyant AUD. Or, as mentioned

Live trade.

Monday 25 March. US open.

The USD is a litter softer today, pulling back from the highs of last week. And not kicked on from the comments from Bostic as I thought it might. Possibly due to 'stimulus' from china. Which has boosted the AUD in particular. There is a case to say

The week ahead.

Over the weekend, comments from FED board member Raphael Bostic suggesting his preference is for only one .25bp rate cut this year is a very hawkish comment. Bostic is a voting board member and his words carry weight. This could see a resumption of USD strength at the start of