The John Elfed Forex Blog

Post CPI thoughts.

This morning's trade didn't last long as the market remained in a fairly positive mood post US PPI data. And the positivity remains following US CPI data, which, although inflation is still 'sticky', the data isn't too worrisome and any thoughts of

Trade photo

The lower CPI 'should' encourage the BOE to speed up rate cuts. And although Tuesday's US PPI data was lower than forecast, it hasn't altered the markets view of 'higher for longer US rates'. It's a 30 pip stop loss

Live trade

Following lower than forecast UK CPI data, I've entered GBP USD short 'in the moment news trade'. Photo to follow:

US and UK data in focus.

The week began with the market pondering if the FED will cut rates at all this year. And USD strength continued during the first half of Monday. That strength waned by the time the US session got underway, in what could be deemed consolidation or profit taking. All eyes are

Weekly review

The week starting Monday 6 January was 'the first week proper' of the year, as institutional traders returned to their desks, meaning you could place merit behind any moves. And it was a week full of activity. The week began in a 'risk on' manner due

Currency overview.

Here is my current view of each individual currency: USD: By the 3rd quarter of 2024 it became apparent pricing for future FED rate cuts was over zealous due to the strong US economy and sticky inflation. That narrative remains with the added presence of the incoming Trump administrations '

Stop loss moved to break even.

I have manually moved the stop loss on yesterday's USD CHF trade to break even (original entry price). The reasoning being: the price is very close to the profit target. And if it falls all the way back to the entry, I suspect it will be due to

Trade photo

It's an 'in the moment news trade' based on USD strength post ISM data. The data aligns with the higher fur longer US rates narrative. It's a 25 pip stop loss with 38 pip profit target The risk to the trade is the stop

Live trade

Following higher than expected US service ISM data, I've entered the trade I've been 'eyeing up' USD CHF long. Email Photo to follow:

Monday 6 January. Back to it.

Now almost fully recovered from my Christmas illness, it's time to get back into the swing of things. The years first week proper began with positive china news and soft data from Japan, followed by a reluctance from the BOJ to commit to rate hikes. Adding to the

Friday 3 January. Happy new year!

It seems like a long time ago since my last 'market commentary', I would love to be able to say I've had an exciting, fun filled time. But unfortunately I spent the whole of Christmas stricken with flu. Not wishing to sound dramatic but I'

Weekly review

The week starting Monday 15 December was dominated by three central bank decisions. And they all entertained in their own way. But before the 'main events", there was the small matter of PMI data, with the data (particularly in the US and UK) indicating 'still high'

Trade photo

USD CAD has been on my radar for a while and considering recent events plus the price of oil is coming down again, fundamentally, USD CAD 'should' revisit recent highs. Therefore I've entered a 'interest rate differential' trade. Given the recent volatility, It'

Live trade

There is a collection of tradable options at the moment. Given USD CAD is showing signs of a reversal following a pullback, I've entered USD CAD long Photo to follow:

Thursday 19 December. A busy 24 hours.

There has been a lot of information to take in this last 24 hours. And in the main it's left us with positive conclusions. Starting with FOMC, as expected a 'hawkish cut' was delivered. Due to the continued strong data coming out if the US, it

Trade closed manually pre FOMC

I have just manually closed today's GBP NZD trade for a profit of +1. To be fair, there is a good chance the trade will carry on to the 1.5 profit target through the FOMC decision. But nonetheless, I feel it's prudent to close the

Trade photo

GBP NZD has a high ATR, so it's a 60 pip stop loss with 90 pip profit target. The trade is based on the potential of UK rates remaining higher for longer compared the NZD. Negative china news has compounded NZD weakness and sent it below that 4hr

Live trade

Following 'still sticky' UK inflation and poor Chinese news overnight, I've entered GBP NZD long Photo to follow:

*side note.

If (like me) you're waiting for the 'right time' to enter a USD or GBP trade, it's worth noting the recent 'opening gaps' as the market re-opens at 10pm UK time. Particularly on CHF pairs. It may be prudent to wait until

Tuesday 17 December

PMI data on Monday (particularly US and UK) highlighted 'still high' service sector inflation, ensuring the FED and BOE are likely to maintain a cautious rate cut approach. And keeps the USD and GBP on the 'to long list'. Backed up by today's US

Weekly review

Week starting Monday 9 December: The week began with positive news out of china, a pledge to support the economy no matter what it takes. And following the recent period of 'unconventional movement', it was very pleasing to see the currencies react in a 'standard risk on&

Trade manually closed

I have closed today's USD CHF trade for for a result of break even. It's not too much of a surprise the trade didn't 'kick on' in fairly quiet Friday trading. Weekly review to follow. Wishing you a lovely week

Trade photo

Just when I thought it was going to be another no trade week. USD is showing signs of strength. ING see no reason to bail out of USD longs and I currently agree. I've shorted the CHF based on yesterday rate cut with a potential willingness to enter

Live trade

I've entered USD CHF long for a Friday afternoon 1:1 based on my narrative from yesterday photo and explanation to follow:

Staying patient

Earlier today I was eyeing up a USD CHF long, with half an eye on USD CAD long. I didn't quite have confidence at the time to place a trade and was waiting for a stop loss I felt comfortable with. I've since been to my