Tuesday 16 April. The risk to yesterday's trade was concerns over the middle east. And a comment from Israel caused a brief spike of JPY strength. That strength subsequently reversed, which leaves me back square one, with a long USD Bias V's JPY or CHF. And the risk to
Weekly review. It was a slow start to the week starting Monday 8 April, as it appeared 'the market' was waiting for Wednesday's CPI. The number came in higher than forecast, the FED has consistently reiterated a data dependent approach. And the data keeps forcing 'the market&
Psychology lesson: Assessing the risks to a trade. As part of any trading strategy, it is essential to be aware of and assess the risks to a potential trade. When trading forex, I consider two types of risk. 1: The financial risk. 2: A particular cause for a trade to stop out. Assessing the financial risk is fairly
Earnings season in focus. As the potential date of the FED's first rate cut keeps getting pushed back, plus the numbers of cuts keeps shrinking ( 3? 2? 1?). The question is, how long before the stock market starts to feel the pinch? I would say not whilst US growth remains consistent. Which
USD in control. Following yesterday's 'hot' CPI, the USD has maintained its strength as it appears June will be too soon for the FED to cut rates. Today we have US PPI, where I suspect it will take a significantly low number to derail the dollar strength. It will
CPI on the agenda plus yesterday's trade manually closed. Due to not wanting to hold any risk during the upcoming RBNZ decision, I have manually closed yesterday's AUD CHF trade for a small profit of +0.3 It's been a quiet start to the forex week as it appears 'the market' is waiting
Weekly review. Week starting Monday 1 April was an up, down, up week for the USD in terms of economic data. Starting with manufacturing ISM reported better than expected, keeping the 'higher for longer' narrative as the market continued to speculate a US rate cut could come later than June.
Friday 5 APRIL. Concerns over an escalation in the middle east have thankfully faded and my 'risk on' bias remains intact. Over to NFP... as long as the numbers are more or less in line with expectations, the positivity should remain. And hopefully, 'risk on' trades will still be
April 4, market close. Concerns over the middle east crept into the market late in the day, sending stocks and bonds yields lower in a 'classic risk off mood'. I'm not of a mind to play a risk off trade currently. But it does unfortunately put any 'risk on&
Time to short the USD? After a few weeks of positive data suggesting a later US rate cut than June and possibly only 2 cuts this year... It's not taken much for the market to jump back on the 'short USD' bandwagon. And today's jobless claims data coupled with
Service ISM below expectations. Just when it appeared that even June was going to be too soon for a US rate cut ( today's ADP employment figures adding to that narrative). along came US service ISM (below expectations) and weakened the USD considerably. The recent strong data from the US means that I&
US OPEN. US bonds above 4.3, S&P falling (due to higher bonds plus the drop in Tesla today) the VIX has risen above 15. All in all it's a mildly 'risk off' mood. But it's not echoed in the forex market as the
Tuesday 2 April. With yesterday's trade complete, nothing has happened to change my view. Attempts from the PBOC to sell USD CHN and the BOJ's verbal warnings has not affected USD strength. And whilst 'the market' is only pricing in 2 US rate cuts this year, I
