Thursday 22 August. Subdued USD sentiment continues ahead of Jackson hole as the market prepares for the beginning of a FED easing cycle. At the start of the year it was widely touted the USD would end up weaker. It currently appears the weakening has begun. But of course, chair Powell could disappoint
Trade photo. It's a 'risk on' trade, based on the market preparing for US rate cuts. Asking for a small pullback, with a stop loss behind a 4hr swing. If it triggers, it could be a trade that takes a while to complete. The risk to the trade
Live trade. I've decided to trade the weak USD momentum with a limit order asking for a small pullback Vs the AUD. I've chosen the AUD as the long simply because I feel it's the currency that has the most going for it at the moment.
Tuesday 20 August. I'm now back on home soil following 24 hours travelling door to door. And after a wonderful time away, I've arrived home to see the risk environment is still tentatively positive, with the USD weak in particular. It appears in anticipation of chair Powell's
Weekly review. Week starting Monday 12 August was a fairly serene week, Us data, namely, RETAIL SALES, CPI and JOBLESS CLAIMS all suggesting a 'soft landing' is still on the cards. And the 'risk recovery' continued following the recent 'crash landing panic'. Which is a good
Trade photo. It's a standard 'risk on trade' with a 20 pip stop loss and a 30 pip profit target. I've gone for 1.5:1 risk reward because it's so early in the trading day. The stop loss is behind two 1hr swings
Live trade. Following a pullback I was waiting for on the AUD CHF 1hr chart. I've chosen the CHF to short simply because I perceive the SNB as the most dovish central bank at the moment. Email photo to follow:
Post retail sales thoughts. Today's US retail sales data has boosted risk sentiment. Having been out when the data was released, I've unfortunately missed a clear in the moment catalyst, or even a pre event anticipation trade. And I now find myself in the predicament that whilst a trade looks
Retail sales in focus. With Wednesday's US CPI data showing disinflation is still steady, there is now a case to say the market doesn't consider inflation data as the main focus. The strength of the economy is now arguably the important factor. And today's US RETAIL data combined
Soft CPI. US CPI has come down slightly as hoped. But a 'sell the fact' scenario sent the anticipation AUD USD trade straight to the stop loss. And is a good example of why it's important to immediately delete the second order when placing anticipation trades. I can&
CPI anticipation orders. Today's US CPI could be a market moving event. A number suggesting disinflation is on track should reinforce the risk on environment. And a number higher than expected could send the market back into 'hard landing fears'. I think it's worth pre event anticipation
Trade photo It's a 20 pip stop loss with a 30 pip profit target. The risk to the trade is the fact it's very early in Tuesday trading and anything could happen when Europe and the US markets open. I will close the trade before US CPI on
Live trade. Having read the SNB are actively seeking to weaken the CHF and considering the 'risk environment' is still tentatively positive. I've placed an AUD CHF long trade following a pullback to previous support. Email photo to follow:
Monday 12 August Following a fascinating weekend at an elephant nature reserve, I've arrived at the charts today to see that with no data releases of note, the 'risk recovery' tentatively continues. And short JPY or CHF trades appear inviting when a stop loss can be placed behind a
Weekly review. The week starting Monday 5 August began with fear, as the market started to worry about the possibility of a 'crash landing' due to recent soft data coming out of the US, compounded by a disappointing NFP number. There was talk of the FED needing to do an
Friday 9 August. Yesterday's 'risk recovery' continued post 'good news is good news' US jobless claims data. The question now is, will it continue into the weekend? I wouldn't blame anyone for taking a 1:1 risk / reward 'risk on' trade if the
Trade photo Having been out as the data was released, I've set a limit order for a small pullback. With a 25 pip stop loss and 38 pip profit target It's a 'risk on' trade based on today's data maintaining the recovery following the
Live trade Initial jobless claims data has maintained the 'risk on' sentiment. I've set a limit order AUD CHF 'risk on trade' Email photo to follow:
ADP data in the limelight. The risk environment has continued to hold steady but delicate. It wouldn't take much to see a return of 'risk off' and it seems traders are waiting for today's US ADP data. A number below expectations could see panic set in again. Or, hopefully,
Is the hysteria over? A sense of calm has returned to the market, helped by positive NZD data and a BOJ member back-tracks on future JPY rate hikes. My current thoughts are a return to 'risk on' trades could be in the pipeline. The problem with a JPY short at the moment
Tuesday 6 August The RBA held rates but ruled out rate cuts anytime soon, in a 'hawkish hold'. Yesterday's US ISM data was positive and helped sentiment, along with the FED'S Daly reminding us US rate cuts rate cuts are coming. In the grand scheme of things
Monday 5 August. Following a very relaxing week in Thailand, I'm still here for another two weeks, but feeling refreshed and powered by watermelon shakes, it's now time for me to get back trading. In the two weeks leading up to my break, there has been a little angst
Notice of upcoming break from trading. I have been doing this 'blog' for over a year now. And I just wanted to say thank very much to everyone reading this. I sincerely hope you are finding some value in my daily market thoughts and decisions. I am currently at a hotel awaiting my early
Live trade I have entered a trade on the only pair I currently see a viable trade. USD CAD long following yesterday's US service ISM data and BOC rate cut. Email photo to follow.
Order didn't trigger & current thoughts. The pre BOC 'anticipation' trade did not trigger within the allocated 90 seconds, therefore I deleted the order to reassess. If you're not familiar with pre event anticipation orders. The point is to take advantage of the 'initial burst' an event creates. The theory
