Weekly review. Down the line, we may look back on the week starting Monday 29 April as the moment the 'tide started to turn' for the USD. Recently, an undeniably strong US economy combined with hawkish FED speak as kept the USD on the front front. And the week started
The return of 'goldilocks' Today's data has seen the return of a word I've not heard for a while: 'goldilocks'. Meaning the economy is 'not too hot' or 'not too cold' ...but just right. A soft headline NFP number, combined with lower wage growth
Pre NFP thoughts. There is a case to say today's SERVICE ISM data is of more significance than NFP. Whilst I expect the usual volitility from NFP, I think it will be difficult to form a conviction until ISM is also reported. What will it take for a trade? I'
Post FOMC Following the lack of fear induced by the FOMC press conference, 'unlikely next move will be a hike', US bond yields lower. The market remains 'cautiously optimistic'. Some well timed (but not confirmed) JPY intervention threw a curve ball but doesn't alter my view
Wednesday 1 May. Monday's trade (USD CHF long) stopped out. Although it went on to hit the 'would have been' profit target. Rather than be disappointed, I take the positive outlook that at least my 'bias' for the chart to rise was correct and the fact it&
Waiting for something to happen. Nothing has materially changed to alter my preference of 'short JPY or CHF' trades. But currently, I don't have conviction in the near term direction of any of the currencies. It appears it's a case of waiting for the next 'event' whether
Weekly review. The week starting Monday 22 April was relatively sedate, 'the market' started in a good mood due to a lack of escalation in the middle east. And the good mood continued on Tuesday when US PMI's were reported softer than expected, it was the first '
CORE PCE in line with expectations. Today's core PCE data shows inflation is still sticky, but the market breathes a sigh of relief it's in-line with expectations and not higher. Combined with positive Microsoft and Alphabet earnings and 'a not so hawkish BOJ' it bodes well for a continuation of
The state of play. Today's GDP report was 'contrasting'. Lower than forecast actual GDP induces a 'bad news is good news scenario', meaning, slowing growth suggests rate cuts on the horizon. But, a higher inflation metric within the numbers suggests holding rates for longer. the initial reaction was
GDP on the agenda. Plus yesterday's trade closed manually. US GDP will be reported shortly, it could be a 'market moving' event as traders look for confirmation (or not) of the robust US economy. Plus, the 'under the bonnet' numbers will give an indication into tomorrow's core PCE number. The outcome could be
Wednesday 23 April. 'Hot' Australian CPI keeps the AUD at the top the 'currencies to long list'. Positive VISA earnings indicate a robust consumer, not just in America but worldwide. And bodes well for a 'soft landing'. With no stand out data today, I maintain my view
Contrasting PMI's, live trade. Positive PMI's from Europe, the UK and Australia contrast (for the first time in a while) with data from the US. As lower than expected PMI, particularly service PMI show a slight chink the the US armour. And any talk of another rate hike from the FED is
Weekly review The week starting Monday 15 April was largely dominated by concerns over an escalation to the awful situation in the Middle East. The market was waiting for Israel's response following Iran's previous attack. Another contributing factor towards the negative environment was the FED's doubling
Trade closed manually For the record, today's trade has been closed manually for +0.9 Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com Enjoy your weekend.
Israel response. Reaction contained for now. It's been on the cards all week, during the Asian session Israel launched a drone attack on Iran. The initial reaction was 'risk off' as you would expect, but all things considered, so far the negativity appears contained. It was mentioned on CNCB earlier in the
Psychology lesson: Thursday 18 April. With yesterday's trade still running, a word I've come across a lot this week is 'consolidating'. USD JPY is consolidating below 155. US 10year bond yield is consolidating above 4.5. Whilst market sentiment is a little nervy (due to higher bond yields, Middle
Market close. The USD remains in control thanks to the 'later rate cut narrative' backed up by FED chair Powell's speech today. Also today, the BOC's Macklem and BOE's Bailey sounded fairly dovish in comparison. Tomorrow's CPI data from the UK will
