Trade photo It's a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target. The stop loss is behind two 1hr swings. The VIX is dropping and US yields are up, in what has been described as 'rising because the world is in a good place'. Which bodes well
Live trade I've entered AUD CAD long 'relative fundamental' trade. based on the still hawkish RBA Vs the BOC likely under pressure to remain dovish. Photo to follow:
Weekly review. The week starting Monday 14 October was another week where it was difficult to have confidence in anything other than USD long trades. Due to US data remaining robust (namely retail sales and jobless claims) combined with the on-going 'unwinding' of FED rate cut expectations. It was also
Forming your own opinion 'in the moment' This blog was never intended to be a signals service, my 'hope' is for you to study my decisions, the reason for those decisions. And along the way you'll pick up the correlations, fundamentals, market narrative, the potential risks of any trade taken and ultimately feel
Friday 18 October I must apologise for the lack of narrative today....I've had internet and server issues. And I haven't been able to access my charts all day. It's an ongoing problem I hope to have fixed over the weekend. From limited knowledge, it appears the
Thursday 17 October The AUD regains composure following excellent jobs data. Bringing the potential of AUD Vs NZD long back into play. Also meaning any thoughts of shorting the AUD Vs the USD were fleeting. Speaking of the USD, it remains strong and longable, especially after today's jobless claims data and
Wednesday 16 October: only trade in town Many, many people (myself included) predicted the USD would end the year lower than it began. That prediction now looks in jeopardy. Currently 'long USD' is the only trade in town, as goeopolitical uncertainty collides with a strong US economy and an 'unwinding' off FED rate
Trade photo This is the 4hr chart, I've set a limit order asking for a small pull back. The stop loss is behind a cluster of 1hr support. The profit target is asking for a new 'recent' high, which is a risk. Similar to last week's
Live trade: limit order Following 'hawkish' comments from the FED's Daly. I've set a limit order for a small pullback on USD CHF email photo to follow:
Monday 14 October. It is a nice sight to see the VIX dropping below 20 and the CHF and JPY weak today. Although the fact it's a partial holiday in the US means too much credence can't be put on the moves. Especially as there are fresh reports of
Weekly review. I found it difficult to form a conviction in the direction of the currencies during the week starting Monday 7 October. Given the previous Friday's positive NFP number, I was 'expecting' a generally risk on environment. But Chinese markets returned from a week long holiday with
Trade closed manually I have closed today's USD CHF trade to avoid weekend risk. For a small loss of -0.3. Ending a week where the market didn't quite align with my views, I will attempt to dissect this week's 'price action' in the weekly
Trade photo It's another long USD trade, based on the re-pricing of FED rate expectations. I've chosen the CHF to short as the SNB remains the most dovish central bank. It's a 20 pip stop loss, with. 20 pip profit target for a Friday 1:1
Live trade. In a repeat of the earlier trade week, I've entered USD CHF long. As the USD weakness post JOBLESS CLAIMS appears to be over. Email photo to follow:
Jobless claims overshadows CPI. Not so long ago, hotter than forecast US CPI would have sent USD JPY higher, along with IS yields. But today, whilst yields are going up, it appears higher than forecast JOBLESS CLAIMS data has stunted the dollar. And left us in limbo with all assets a little out of
Wednesday 9 October: The state of play. So far, it's been a bit of a strange week. Nothing has fundamentally changed to alter the 'soft landing' view. But a combination of disappointment over further Chinese stimulus, underlying middle east concerns and the US 10year bond yield rising above 4% has caused an underlying
Trade photo It's essentially a 'long USD' trade based on continually positive US data causing FED rate cut bets to be unwound. And I believe the CHF to be 'overbought'. It certainly isn't a text book trade though. And the high VIX is a
Live trade This is by no means a 'text book' trade. But I've entered a USD CHF long. It's a chart I've been eyeing up since Friday's NFP release. Email photo to follow:
Monday 7 October: stubborn VIX. As far as I can tell, nothing has fundamentally happened to alter my preference for 'short JPY or CHF' trades. But currently those currencies are too strong to short, as the VIX pokes it's head above 20. It could be the US 10year yield rising above
Weekly review The week starting Monday 30 September was another 'by and large' positive week. Although the positivity was briefly paused on Tuesday due to escalating middle east fears. Which, unfortunately don't appear to be going away anytime soon and will be a constant underlying risk to any
Huge NFP beat. Today's NFP data has surprised across the board, an extra 100,000 jobs added above forecast. Plus a lower unemployment rate than forecast, as US data once again confirms a solid economy and the likelihood of a 'soft landing'. All in all, the data has been
Trade photo It's a 40 pip stop loss, 60 pip profit target. Soft landing trade. Not long ago, the market wouldn't have liked the high service ISM data, but at the moment positive data is good news. And a soft landing in the US is still forecast. For
Live trade. AUD JPY long, 'risk on, soft landing trade' I've stuck with the AUD based on I believe the AUD has the strongest fundamentals. But there is a case to make to trade any of the other currencies long vs the JPY (or CHF) Photo to follow:
Thursday 3 October: GBP under pressure The pound has weakened due to a 'dovish turn' by the BOE, potentially putting the GBP on the 'to short list'. Although, I would still expect the GBP to recover Vs JPY, therefore my preference remains for 'risk on' short JPY trades. Especially considering
Psychology lesson. Going back to Friday's JPY strength 'post election result'. I just wanted to highlight an aspect of psychology. I wasn't in a 'short JPY' trade when the news hit. But I very easily could have been. And it would have stopped out.
