Trade closed manually Apologies for the lack of narrative today, I've had a hectic day. And due to the fact I'm heading back out until later this evening, and given that consumer confidence is up, combined with slightly lower inflation expectations, I think the USD may meander into the
Quick note. A more hawkish than expected FOMC minutes has created a 'risk off sentiment' but it doesn't alter my view of looking for short JPY or CHF opportunities. In fact, the more they strengthen the better. And I maintain my position of waiting for a 'nice
The state of play. FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings, NZD retail sales. Monday's AUD JPY trade has finally stopped out. And I'm slightly perplexed by the lack of appetite for the 'risk on' currencies today. The VIX is still at 12, the S&P is meandering around all time highs. The US 10 year is
Hawkish RBNZ makes NZD Longs look attractive. A hawkish RBNZ meeting has strengthend NZD, as it brings into question whether the first cut will be held off until next year. And makes NZD Longs a very attractive option. Particularly as a 'risk on: short JPY Or CHF trade. But also NZD CAD is very viable considering
*important* Yesterday's trade. Plus upcoming RBNZ. Yesterday's AUD JPY trade is still ongoing. But it came within half a pip of the stop loss, which is an example of why it's essential to trade with a broker that has very tight spreads. But to also be aware: does the buy price widen?
Weekly review. Ever since the 'goldilocks' NFP report at the beginning of the month, the market has been in an optimistic mood. And the optimism continued throughout the week starting Monday 13 May. Tuesday's PPI gave a 'brief scare' as it appeared inflation was still too
Friday 17 May. FED officials trying to remain as hawkish as possible has stabilised the USD. but all in all, nothing has altered my view that 'risk on' short JPY or CHF trades are on the table. A look at the 4hr JPY charts does make me think yen weakness is
The state of play. It currently appears all is rosey in the markets garden. US data is (finally) softening just enough to warrant a rate cut, but not enough to cause concern. The S&P is hitting all time highs, bond yields are dripping lower, the VIX remains low, earnings season has once
Retail sales and CPI on the agenda. Fairly straightforward, similar to yesterday, the preferred outcome of today's data would be a backing up of the 'soft landing narrative'. Which means not too hot, not too cold (goldilocks scenario). And would likely induce more risk on possibilities of short JPY, CHF or possibly even
Reaction to PPI The initial reaction was a knee jerk response to the higher than expected month on month reading. But this is apparently due to a revision lower last time and all things considered it's not as high as it appears. Which for me, means short JPY or CHF trades
US data on the agenda, what to look for? Ever since the 'soft' NFP number a couple of weeks ago, there has been a sense of ' soft landing optimism' in the air. Today sees the release of PPI (which is an inflation metric) and the 'ideal' outcome would be for a below forecast
Monday 13 May. It's been a quiet start to the week, nothing has fundamentally altered my view of short JPY or CHF trades. It currently appears September is still on the table for the first rate cut from the FED. The JPY weakness has continued in particular, and any 1hr swings
Weekly review. The week starting Monday 6 May was bereft of significant US data, which led to a relatively quiet week. The vix fell below 13 and with no signs of intervention the JPY was the laggard. The only noteworthy US data came on Thursday and Friday, US jobless claims rose more
Trade closed to avoid weekend risk. To avoid weekend risk, I have closed yesterday's NZD JPY trade for a small profit of +0.4.
Stop loss manually moved to break even. I'm on uncle duty this afternoon, collecting my niece and nephew from school, so I won't be trading. But I've moved the stop loss to break even on yesterday's NZD JPY trade. This gives the trade an opportunity to complete, but ensures
Quiet trading continues. Another quiet day in the forex market, likely due to the lack of US data this week. I realise I sound like a broken record, but, with the VIX still below 14, nothing has happened to alter my preference of 'short JPY or CHF trades' as the market
Psychology lesson: Over trading / under trading. As you may know by now, I aim to place between 1 to 3 trades per week. How did I arrive at that number? It was something that happened naturally as the strategy evolved overtime. Most of my trades are placed on a 1hr chart, they can take anywhere between
Tuesday 7 May. A relatively quiet forex market at the moment. The only noticeable news of note has been a 'neutral hold' from the RBA, which disappointed Aussie bulls expecting talk of a possible hike. But all things considered, Australia still has one of the more hawkish central banks and today&
