Weekly review The week starting Monday 30 September was another 'by and large' positive week. Although the positivity was briefly paused on Tuesday due to escalating middle east fears. Which, unfortunately don't appear to be going away anytime soon and will be a constant underlying risk to any
Huge NFP beat. Today's NFP data has surprised across the board, an extra 100,000 jobs added above forecast. Plus a lower unemployment rate than forecast, as US data once again confirms a solid economy and the likelihood of a 'soft landing'. All in all, the data has been
Trade photo It's a 40 pip stop loss, 60 pip profit target. Soft landing trade. Not long ago, the market wouldn't have liked the high service ISM data, but at the moment positive data is good news. And a soft landing in the US is still forecast. For
Live trade. AUD JPY long, 'risk on, soft landing trade' I've stuck with the AUD based on I believe the AUD has the strongest fundamentals. But there is a case to make to trade any of the other currencies long vs the JPY (or CHF) Photo to follow:
Thursday 3 October: GBP under pressure The pound has weakened due to a 'dovish turn' by the BOE, potentially putting the GBP on the 'to short list'. Although, I would still expect the GBP to recover Vs JPY, therefore my preference remains for 'risk on' short JPY trades. Especially considering
Psychology lesson. Going back to Friday's JPY strength 'post election result'. I just wanted to highlight an aspect of psychology. I wasn't in a 'short JPY' trade when the news hit. But I very easily could have been. And it would have stopped out.
Middle east concerns. A little bit of negativity has crept into the market. Today's US ISM data shows still sluggish manufacturing. And concerns over events in the middle east is starting to have an effect. The VIX is up to 19, the S&P is under pressure and the US
Tuesday 1 October The USD ship has steadied post Powell speech as the market starts to price in two extra cuts this year rather than three. But overall market sentiment remains positive. Sentiment for the EUR remains tentative as Ms laggard reiterates caution regarding a slowing economy. Today's CPI data will
Trade photo. It's another 'risk on' trade. As the positive sentiment surrounding china continues. This time with a 50 pip stop loss and 75 pip profit target. It currently appears Friday's JPY strength is now over. But if USD JPY reverses, that's a risk
Live trade. The 'status quo' remains. Which means I'm still looking for 'risk on' trades. The JPY is starting to weaken against everything including the USD. I've therefore entered AUD JPY long. Email photo to follow:
Weekly review. The week starting Monday 23 September was a calm week. The risk environment remained positive as the soft landing narrative continued, US GDP, JOBLESS CLAIMS and core PCE all signaling a healthy economy with the disinflation process in tact. Adding to the positivity was china's attempts to stimulate
Friday 27 September: JPY strength A surprise election result in Japan caused a surge of JPY strength, as the incoming prime minister leans more hawkish than the market was expecting. Which potentially puts us back to square one regarding the yen, just when it appeared 'short JPY' would be the go to trade
Thursday 26 September. US GDP and jobless claims data shows a healthy US economy and the risk environment remains positive. Chair Powell's speech passed by without monetary policy comments and the market continues to focus on the soft landing narrative and China's attempts to stimulate it's economy.
Wednesday 25 September Nothing has happened to alter my view of 'risk on soft landing trades'. (Ideally with a stop loss behind 1hr support) Slightly lower than forecast Australian CPI hasn't dented sentiment for the AUD, attempts from china to stimulate it's economy is helping the positive
Trade photo It's another 40 pip stop loss, 60 pip profit target...'risk on' trade, based on the current soft landing narrative. The AUD is my preferred long due to still hawkish RBA, combined with china's attempt to boost its economy. The JPY is currently the
Live trade No surprise to see the RBA hold rates, with no sign of an imminent cut. Combined with potential stimulus from china to boost its economy should see the AUD remain supported. At the same time, the BOJ thinks the 'unwinding' of JPY longs could have reached it'
Trade photo It's a 40 pip stop loss, with 60 pip profit target 'risk on' trade. The risk to the trade is JPY strength, but currently, the USD is recovering Vs the JPY, so in this moment, it makes sense to short the yen. Feel free to email
Live trade. Given my recent narrative, it's probably no surprise to see I've entered AUD JPY long as a 'risk on' trade. Email photo to follow:
Weekly review The week starting Monday 16 September had three central bank meetings. And each one added to the 'risk on' narrative in its own way. The USD began the week on the back foot, as the market anticipated at 0.5bp rate cut from the FED. On Wednesday, a
Friday 20 September. The general mood remains positive, with the market seemingly content the FED is cutting rates into a fairly strong economy. The VIX remains below 17, the S&P has hit all time highs and the 'soft landing narrative' is back en vouge. GBP Sentiment remains positive post
Trade photo. It's a 40 pip stop loss with 60 pip profit target, 'risk on' trade, based on the markets positive reaction to the FOMC cut. The BOE has held rates in a 'hawkish hold' so the GBP long makes sense to me, although an AUS
Live trade. Following a 'hawkish hold' from the BOE, I've entered long GBP JPY as a 'risk on' trade. Email photo to follow:
Waiting for the dust to settle. There had been talk of a 0.5bp rate cut at tonight's meeting. But the fact it actually happened, I must admit was a bit of a surprise to me. In the immediate aftermath of the decision, it looked for all the world a USD short was going
A waiting game. Today's US retail sales gave the dollar a lift, the data suggests a 0.25bp cut is warranted rather than the 0.5 the market has been pricing in. Does that make the USD longable? Arguably an 'in the moment' USD JPY long was tradable in
Monday 16 September. 'Soft' Chinese data over the weekend didn't 'spook' the market. And the USD has been on the back foot as the market anticipates a 0.5bp rate cut on Wednesday. Possibly setting itself up for a disappointment, but we'll see. (A quick
