Order didn't trigger & current thoughts.

The pre BOC 'anticipation' trade did not trigger within the allocated 90 seconds, therefore I deleted the order to reassess.

If you're not familiar with pre event anticipation orders. The point is to take advantage of the 'initial burst' an event creates. The theory being, if the price shoots up (or down) the distance of the 1hr ATR in the first minute or so, it's likely the momentum will continue long enough to get an extra 20 / 30 pips.

On this occasion, the CAD did weaken, but it wasn't quite rapid enough to hit the order price within 90 seconds.

So where does that leave us? Erm, unfortunately, still in no man land.

The BOC cut rates and left the door open for further cuts, which should create CAD short opportunities.

Positive manufacturing PMI and high service PMI from the UK should keep the BOE hawkish.

Noticeably high service PMI from the US, would normally send USD JPY higher. But, again, the JPY is relentlessly strong. And until I feel confident the YEN strength is reversing and creating what I would call ' 4hr upward thrust'....or until I can bring myself to actually long the JPY. I once again have to sit on the sidelines and wonder where the next trade is coming from.

Of course, on Friday US PCE is reported and could create volitility. Which could lend itself to another pre event USD anticipation trade (to cover both outcomes this time). But I'm going away on Friday. So for me at least, that option is out.

Just a word of comfort, if, like me, you are struggling to have conviction in a trade at the moment....it happens. It's frustrating. You start to question if you're making good decisions.... It's important to keep faith in yourself, keep gathering information and stay focused on making a logical decision.

Soon enough, the market will revert to type, the interest rate differential carry trade is too profitable for the large institutions for them to permanently abandon it.

Feel free to email any thoughts or questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com