No trade week?

Choppy trading continues this week, my average trades per week has been gradually dwindling as I've found it harder and harder to gain conviction in the future direction of each currency. It wasn't too long ago I was averaging just over 3 trades per week, which dropped to just over 2. Recently I've rarely been able to find conviction more than once a week.

The highest probability trades are ones when a data release or news align with the prevailing direction of a currencies fundamentals.

This week we've had softer than expected AUD GDP data, which goes against the bullish RBA rhetoric. Softer US JOB OPENINGS whilst chair Powell did his best to sound hawkish. The EUR hasn't reacted to government turmoil in France. We've had higher SWISS inflation, which goes against the dovish SNB. And the JPY continues to be strong, despite the very low VIX and positive stock market.

All the while, political and geopolitical narratives continue to cloud the picture.

The only currency reacting according to short term interest rate expectations is actually the JPY. With growing calls for a hike on 19 December. Dare I say the yen could be longable into that decision? TD AMERITRADE think so and its something I will ponder.

In the meantime time, 'hopefully' upcoming US data (JOBLESS CLAIMS, NFP) will create a little more clarity.

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com