NFP preview.

The USD has had a rough week as chair Powell's perceived dovish testimony appears to have nudged dollar weakness earlier than thought (only two weeks ago it appeared June was even too early for a rate cut).

In today's NFP, forecast 200,000 added jobs (remember last month's huge beat of +350,000). Any reading below forecast could compound USD weakness and heighten the risk on move in a bad news is good news scenario.

Of course, nothing is ever simple and the unemployment rate and hourly wage rate will be scrutinised along with the headline number. Anything showing the US economy to still be 'too strong' will throw a spanner in the 'risk on' mood and the afternoon will likely see USD strength as this week's short dollar trades are unwound.

So, as all central banks keep reiterating, it's over to the data. And today we could have a post NFP trade in either direction when the US market gets underway.