NFP in focus.

With Monday's 'bond rout' a distant memory, focus has turned to jobs data. And this week's numbers has seen a return of the 'goldilocks narrative' (soft but not too soft). A September FED rate cut is almost certain and the attention turns to how many (if any) cuts will follow before year end.

Today's NFP could be fairly binary for the USD, the 'expectation' is for a 'soft number', which would likely see a sustained US 10 YEAR yield move below that 4.2 area. And trigger a USD sell off.

Alternatively, a surprise number above expectations would likely see YIELDS rise and a bout of USD buying.

The 'with the tide' move would be a soft number creating a USD short. But the USD could be longable on a strong number (at least in the short term).

We do have the added complication of how 'trustworthy' the data is following the recent firing of the stasticics commissioner. But I think we can only focus on the data and not try to second guess.

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