NFP

It's hard work keeping up with the markets views. When the weather is changeable, there is a saying 'four seasons in one day'. This week the market has seen 'three scenarios in one week. Starting with out of the blue (unwarranted) stagflation fears, moving to, everything's ok 'soft landing'. Now, today's 'hot across the board NFP' number brings back higher for longer as the market ponders if rates are restrictive enough.

US yields are up, stock futures are down and the USD has strengthend accordingly.

As discussed last week, regardless of 'higher for longer' or 'soft landing', I believe the JPY is shortable in either scenario. And a USD JPY long is a very viable trade today in my view. It's just a case of getting the timing right.

There is a case to say an entry straight after the news was the best option. But personally, I'm going to wait for a 'nice' 5min up swing on USD JPY before feeling confident enough to place a trade.