Monday 7 October: stubborn VIX.

As far as I can tell, nothing has fundamentally happened to alter my preference for 'short JPY or CHF' trades. But currently those currencies are too strong to short, as the VIX pokes it's head above 20.

It could be the US 10year yield rising above 4, which may signal a return of 'good news is bad news'. Or it could be heightened anxiety surrounding the middle east.

But for now, it means I'm sitting on the sidelines and seeing how it plays out.

If the VIX suddenly pops to 25 or 30, with negative narrative, there may be a 'risk off' possibility.

But I suspect more likely, the VIX will drop and the 'JPY and CHF strength will reverse.

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com