Monday 18 November: USD takes a breather.

A day bereft of major data releases and headlines sees the USD take a breather from its recent strength. And in fact, a skim through the 4hr charts of all the currencies against each other shows a certain neutrality across the board.

The AUD is showing a little strength. Perhaps in anticipation of 'hawkish' minutes due to be released during the Asian session, but with the VIX rising I'm not filled with confidence to place a 'risk on' trade. And I currently maintain my view 'long USD' is the only viable trade with bonefide reasoning behind it.

It's just a case of staying patient and waiting for signs of USD weakness to reverse. My preference remains for USD CHF, although whichever currency to short will be decided according to my feeling In the moment.

Tuesday's Canadian CPI data will be interesting to guage whether the BOC are likely to cut a further 0.5bp in December.

Of course, the USD 'softness' may continue. In which case it'll require a deeper look to see if there is a 'cause' for the weakness. But for now it's a matter of waiting, which is something we have to get used to as traders.