Monday 14 August 20:00 UK time

A few weeks ago, when US inflation started to meaningfully come down, the expectation in the market was for the beginning USD weakness. But it's not played out like that. With the US economy still strong and helped by the fact that most mortgages in the US are 30 years, compared to other countries that generally run on 5 year mortgages, the consumer in the US isn't hit as hard by rate hikes. Combined with the Chinese economy not taking off since the covid lockdown restrictions have been lifted. I can see the USD remaining strong, at least in the near term. Data out of China in Tuesdays Asian session could be market moving.

The other them of the market is interest rate differentials, with most countries at or near the peak in rates, it is difficult to place interest rate differential trades at the moment, with the one exception being the JPY. I'm still of the view that the yen is shortable on pullbacks. What against depends on the risk environment at the time.