Monday 13 July: CPI in focus.

Anxiety is in the air due to continued Middle East 're-escalation'. Although it is yet to transpire into a full blown 'risk off environment'. I'm particularly intrigued as to the continued CHF weakness. Its very strange to see the franc so weak in a negative environment.

I still have a short CHF bias, my problem at the moment is that by the time the American session rolls round, it feels like there isn't enough juice left in the tank for the CHF to continue weakening. Each time 3pm UK time arrives, I already feel like the move is a little stretched:

As things stand, I still think the market is waiting for CPI (Tuesday) before committing. A high number would 'likely' compound risk off, a low number potentially creates a risk on move. On balance, with war negativity in the air, I would suggest a high CPI reading would create the highest probability opportunity. USD long, Vs whichever currency is most under pressure at the time.

Please feel free to email any thoughts or questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com