Market close Tuesday 15 August

Here is a snap shot of my thoughts on the relevant instruments at the moment:

Risk environment: fairly negative, china news causing continued worry, even stimulus could only provide a brief rest-bite. Compounding the negativity, Fitch have now given warnings about US bank stocks.

USD: nothing has changed from my last post to alter my opinion on USD strength. Today's retail sales have only added to USD positivity.

GBP. Average earnings data keeps the pound bouyed for now, but it may only be a matter of time before interest rate hikes hit British economy.

JPY: baring strong 'risk off' or BOJ intervention, I'm still of the view the yen is shortable on pullbacks.

CAD: positive data offset by negative oil. Difficult to trade at the moment.

EUR: no particular view on the euro at the moment.

NZD: struggling with the negative 'risk environment'. Rate hike decision imminent.

AUD: struggling along with the kiwi thanks to china and general 'risk' malaise, compounded by mildly dovish meeting minutes.

All in all I'm currently of the view that it's a long dollar environment. It's just a question of whether to trade it against the JPY or a commodity currency.