The return of 'goldilocks'

Today's data has seen the return of a word I've not heard for a while: 'goldilocks'. Meaning the economy is 'not too hot' or 'not too cold' ...but just right.

A soft headline NFP number, combined with lower wage growth and slightly higher unemployment, had the reaction you would expect. (weaker USD).

Then, lower than forecast SERVICE ISM, which is also what the FED wants to see, backs up the 'goldilocks' scenario.

But the initial reaction to the ISM data has been USD strength. Which is the opposite to what I would have expected.

This USD strength could be the 'prices paid' component of the ISM data (which was higher than forecast). Or it could just be 'sell the fact' profit taking. Because USD strength goes against my view of the data, it does mean that I'll be sitting this one out. But with the VIX below 14, if 'goldilocks' stays around, I suspect I'll be looking for 'risk on' opportunities at the start of next week.

But for now, I'll switch the computer off.

Weekly review to follow. Wishing you a nice weekend.