Gathering of information.
You may have gathered that this method of trading relies on understanding the fundamentals of 'the market' and the news of the day. Then reacting to the likely correlations. For example, in a 'risk on' environment, the go to trade is a commodity currency traded long Vs the JPY. Or if the 'risk tone' isn't a particular factor in the moment, each country's economic data comes to the fore. And if the EUR has good GDP data, a EUR CAD long 'relative fundamental' trade could be the order of the day.
Currently, the 'risk environment' governs all. And the risk environment is (mainly) controlled by US data. But that won't always be the case as the world ebbs and flows.
The important thing is forming an opinion on the potential outcome of future events...Often, the market doesn't react how you think it should. And that's when you don't place a trade. But when the market does react how you think it should, you find a stop loss whereby you can say ' I'm so convinced in this trade, I'd say I should have taken it, regardless if it stops out'.
Getting to the point of understanding the underlying 'market fundamentals' and the potential reactions of each currency is difficult. It takes months, if not years and is in fact an ever learning process....if there is anything you are struggling with regarding the risk environment, correlations and currency fundamentals, please don't hesitate to send me an email.
But, this message isn't about understanding the market, I wanted to touch on where I currently get my information. And how long it takes each day.
I find myself spending less and less time 'gathering information'. To the point these days, I generally spend about 40 minutes each day acquiring information and looking at charts.
Here is my current list of sources and how long it takes:
In no particular order of importance:
FOREX LIVE: I generally start my day with a quick skim through the headlines on Forex live. Overtime, I've learned which headlines to ignore and which to click on. I'm looking for something to tell me the mood of the day and the reason for the mood. I ignore anything that is purely technical related. Adam Button is a particularly good source of knowledge. And Eamon Sheridan can sometimes throw a gold nugget....time spent, 3 minutes.
I then look at FX street, a skim through the headlines and a look at the data calender, by this point, without even looking at the charts I have a good idea if there is a viable trade opportunity, is there an opportunity right now? Or do I need to wait for a particular data release or speech? .. Time spent, another 3 minutes.
Regardless, I will then have a look at the charts, comparing the strength and weakness of each currency and support and resistance on the 4hr and 1hr timeframe. It's also important to be aware of daily support and resistance....time spent, 4 minutes.
I've subscribed to 'free' daily emails from both ING and ACTION FOREX, which I read as and when I notice the articles in my inbox. I find the ING emails particularly informative.... time spent, 3 minutes.
If I'm flummoxed and need to delve a little deeper to understand the narrative of the day, I also look at EFX DATA, NEWS NOW (currency section) or FOREX FACTORY. Time spent: 3 minutes.
TV / podcasts.
I also pay attention to Bloomberg and CNBC, sometimes by watching the programme, but more often than not by listening to the shows via podcast ( a 'free' ap on either of the Google or apple stores does the job). I much prefer CNBC, even though it's primarily about company stocks. I get a very good insight into interest rates, the bond market and the S&P 500. 'half time report' and 'closing bell' are usually the shows I listen to. I find Scott wapner an excellent anchor and Steve Liesman is the most informative, level headed analyst. But I find it interesting (and entertaining) listening to the bullish and bearish theory's all the panel members have and forming my own opinion. Time spent: on average I listen to 3 or 4 shows a week, which are 45 minutes long. And I listen whilst I'm making an evening meal, or out walking or driving, even sometimes before I go to sleep at night. Therefore it doesn't inhibit my day as it would if I was only focused on the show.
Readers of my book will know the only reason I'm still trading is a gentleman named Mark Boardman (Forextradermark) and to this day I still watch his weekly videos and get valuable insights into the ever changing landscape. Time spent: Similar to the podcasts, I listen to a 45 minute video whilst doing other things.
Finally, throughout the course of the day, there will be at least another one, maybe two looks at the charts. Time spent: If I think there is an opportunity, it takes maybe 10 minutes to make a decision. If there isn't an opportunity, it takes about 5 minutes.
And that's it, that's my day as a trader gathering information and making decisions. I used to spend a lot longer but as time goes on you become more in tune with the market and it's about feeling confident you have enough information to make a decision.
Coming soon: currency overview.
For the record, I've not traded today as I didn't have confidence in the positivity or negativity of the market.
Feel free to email questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com