The state of play. FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings, NZD retail sales.

Monday's AUD JPY trade has finally stopped out. And I'm slightly perplexed by the lack of appetite for the 'risk on' currencies today. The VIX is still at 12, the S&P is meandering around all time highs. The US 10 year is fairly flat around 4.4. There certainly isn't any 'fear' in the market.

There hasn't been any JPY intervention talk, although JGB yield has 'been allowed' to reach 1%, which could explain JPY strength.

The AUD and NZD in particular are not as strong as the fundamentals suggest they should be, which I'm currently putting down to either something going on with china or simply 'profit taking'.

Currently, I'm waiting for signs of a reversal in either the JPY or CHF, where I can place a stop loss behind a 'nice 1hr swing'.

Upcoming events which could confirm or negate my bias are ... FOMC minutes (unlikely to be market moving). NVIDIA earnings (potentially very market moving). NZD retail sales (hopefully a positive number will re-ignite NZD strength).

For now, my 'decision' is to await that 'nice 1hr swing' where I can confidently say: Even if this trade stops out, I still think I should have taken it.

If that happens, I would be happy to long any currency Vs either the JPY or CHF.

Feel free to ask questions or comment with your own thoughts on the market, you might have an insight I haven't thought of: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com