John Elfed

I've been trading Forex for 6 years consistently profitable. I've been through all the emotions associated with trading and my quest is to share my knowledge in the hope it can help others.

Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 5 August began with fear, as the market started to worry about the possibility of a 'crash landing' due to recent soft data coming out of the US, compounded by a disappointing NFP number. There was talk of the FED needing to do an

Friday 9 August.

Yesterday's 'risk recovery' continued post 'good news is good news' US jobless claims data. The question now is, will it continue into the weekend? I wouldn't blame anyone for taking a 1:1 risk / reward 'risk on' trade if the

Trade photo

Having been out as the data was released, I've set a limit order for a small pullback. With a 25 pip stop loss and 38 pip profit target It's a 'risk on' trade based on today's data maintaining the recovery following the

Live trade

Initial jobless claims data has maintained the 'risk on' sentiment. I've set a limit order AUD CHF 'risk on trade' Email photo to follow:

ADP data in the limelight.

The risk environment has continued to hold steady but delicate. It wouldn't take much to see a return of 'risk off' and it seems traders are waiting for today's US ADP data. A number below expectations could see panic set in again. Or, hopefully,

Is the hysteria over?

A sense of calm has returned to the market, helped by positive NZD data and a BOJ member back-tracks on future JPY rate hikes. My current thoughts are a return to 'risk on' trades could be in the pipeline. The problem with a JPY short at the moment

Tuesday 6 August

The RBA held rates but ruled out rate cuts anytime soon, in a 'hawkish hold'. Yesterday's US ISM data was positive and helped sentiment, along with the FED'S Daly reminding us US rate cuts rate cuts are coming. In the grand scheme of things

Monday 5 August.

Following a very relaxing week in Thailand, I'm still here for another two weeks, but feeling refreshed and powered by watermelon shakes, it's now time for me to get back trading. In the two weeks leading up to my break, there has been a little angst

Notice of upcoming break from trading.

I have been doing this 'blog' for over a year now. And I just wanted to say thank very much to everyone reading this. I sincerely hope you are finding some value in my daily market thoughts and decisions. I am currently at a hotel awaiting my early

Live trade

I have entered a trade on the only pair I currently see a viable trade. USD CAD long following yesterday's US service ISM data and BOC rate cut. Email photo to follow.

Order didn't trigger & current thoughts.

The pre BOC 'anticipation' trade did not trigger within the allocated 90 seconds, therefore I deleted the order to reassess. If you're not familiar with pre event anticipation orders. The point is to take advantage of the 'initial burst' an event creates. The theory

Pre BOC anticipation order.

I've decided to place a buy stop USD CAD 'pre BOC anticipation' order. I will set the order a few minutes before the decision. Around 13 pips away from the price at the time. With a 15 pip stop loss and 23 pip profit target....see

PMI and BOC on the agenda.

Another day, another bout of AUD and NZD weakness as china concerns contribute to falling commodity prices. And it looks like not trading USD or JPY long was the wrong decision. And if anyone did, based on china fears and falling commodity prices, there is a strong case to say

Monday 22 July.

Joe Biden stepping out of the US election was greeted with a shrug as the market had already thought his position was untenable. A rate cut from china was met with disappointment as the market is concerned that the Chinese government feels the need to stimulate it's economy.

Weekly review.

During the week starting Monday 15 July, a collection of events caused an 'unease', even though the underlying theme of 'soft landing' still remains. The week started with the market digesting the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. And there is a new phrase being banded about:

Trade closed manually.

I have manually closed Yesterday's AUD JPY trade to avoid weekend risk, for a loss of -0.6. Which brings to us to the end of an interesting, eventful and slightly strange week. Which I will try to disect in the upcoming weekly review. Feel free to email

Trade photo.

It's a 'standard risk on' interest rate differential trade. Mixed data from Australia should keep the RBA one of the more hawkish central banks. It's a 40 pip stop loss with 60 pip profit target. The stop loss is behind two 1hr swings The

Live trade

The recent JPY strength finally appears to have waned. The VIX is dropping, tech stocks are recovering and although there isn't a 'fresh' risk on catalyst. The underlying 'soft landing narrative' remains. I've entered I've entered AUD JPY long. Email

Wednesday 17 July.

The negative mood from yesterday has persisted. In fact, it's worse and I still can't pin why. The VIX has risen close to 15 for the first time in a while. Tech stocks are slumping. The JPY strength has continued (more intervention has been touted, or

Can't put my finger on it.

Today's positive US retail sales, should, in my opinion, be deemed as 'good news is good news'. Meaning a continuation of the 'soft landing narrative'. But the currencies are not behaving in a 'risk on' manner. And I can't put

Monday 15 July and the week ahead.

Relatively calm markets have shrugged off the assassination attempt. And all things considered, my bias for 'risk on soft landing' trades remains. Although I'd like to see some 'fresh impetus' before placing a trade. Slightly disappointing data from china has hit sentiment a little

Weekly review.

All in all, the week starting Monday 8 July was another week where it appears a 'soft landing' is still on the cards. Backed up by US CPI, which came in softer than expected. Shelter is still too high, but there is an expectation it will fall to

Post CPI thoughts

Thursday's 'soft' CPI shows disinflation is on track, with shelter the only major component still too high. But multiple analyst reports suggest even shelter, although on a slower curve, should be back to pre pandemic levels by the 2nd quarter next year. All in all it

Paid-members only

Anticipation orders

CPI in focus.

The main event of the week is approaching, US CPI data. A 'soft' number will be hoped for, which will likely see the 'soft landing' narrative remain. Whichever way it goes, the data will likely create volatility. The market is very sensitive to inflation data and