John Elfed

I've been trading Forex for 8 years consistently profitable. I've been through all the emotions associated with trading and my quest is to share my knowledge in the hope it can help others.

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Wednesday 2 August 06:00 UK time.

*Update

Mohammed El Erian says the fitch US downgrade is likely to be ignored.

Tuesday 1 August 22:40 UK time.

A downgrade to the US long term credit rating from  AA+ to AAA. The market hasn't reacted yet but this could cause 'risk off' if it's deemed the long term well being of the US economy is precarious.

Monday 31 July 15:40 UK time.

The market starts the week in a good mood with a potential soft landing very much on everyone's mind. The JPY has continued to weaken following Friday's slight tweak in yield curve. The Aud is also benefiting from rising copper prices. On the agenda this week,

Weekly review

This past week started with a waiting game, waiting for the FED, the ECB and the BOJ to give clarity on the future path of rate hikes. First up on Wednesday was the FED, which was deemed as a dovish hike, Mr Powells retoric of data dependence gave the market

Thursday 27 July 19:00 UK time

In recent months it's become the norm to expect the unexpected from the BOJ. Today is a prime example. Last week governor Ueda was adamant that policy was fine and there was no need to adjust anything. Today there has been a leak suggesting yield curve control will

Thursday 27 July 16:50 UK time.

Wednesday 26 July 21:25

Wednesday 26 July 10:15 UK time

During the Asian session AUD CPI came in lower than expected, but stubbornly high inflation in the service sector will keep the pressure on the RBA to keep interest rates high. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported decent earnings, which is good news but the market may have wanted a little

Tuesday 25 July 09:20 UK time

China bolstered the yuan overnight by selling US dollars and promised stimulus to boost the economy, this has weakened the USD. All eyes now turn to Microsoft and Alphabet earnings this evening, it's a high bar to reach to keep the AI bubble going. Between earnings and the

Monday 24 July 10:40 UK time

Monday 24 July 08:50 UK time

A very busy week ahead with central bank meetings from the US, Europe and Japan. A slew of PMI releases, with production already slowed and the service service sector starting to roll over, will the data give a continuation to the soft landing possibility? This week also has the start

Weekly review

This last week saw a recovery for the USD, helped by a resilient economy and robust jobs market. Which has given rise to talk of potentially more rate hikes from the fed. Plus inflation rolling over in other regions (Britain in particular) took the focus away from US disinflation. Disappointing

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Friday 21 July 08:30 UK time

Thursday 20 July 16:00

Today's trade completed at hit profit. Jobless claims data shows US employment is robust and may well have the market reconsidering how many more hikes the fed will do. The GBP is still weak following yesterday's inflation data, which has the market thinking less hikes are

Thursday 20 July 05:00 UK time

Positive developments out of China and a strong Australian jobs report have given a boost to the AUD. Inflation data from Japan will be closely watched tonight, will the JPY remain shortable?

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Wednesday 19 July 12:30

Wednesday 19 July 07:30

For the first time in a long time, inflation in the UK had been reported softer than expected. This is good news for the residents of the UK. But in terms of the currency, it appears that good news is bad news. The pound is sinking across the board as

Monday 17 July 09:50

Weekly review

Following last Friday's NFP, the dollar started the week softly, I tried to take advantage of this with a EUR USD long trade on monday in anticipation the USD would remain weak in the lead up to CPI. Which was expected to be lower than forecast, in part

Thursday 13 july 09:20

Following yesterday's soft CPI print, the USD has continued to weaken. Are the fed done raising rates? The market is still pricing in one more hike at the next meeting, but it doesn't think there will be anymore after that. Following the reversal of the USD

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Wednesday 12 July 10:45

Tuesday 11 July 10:10

With the market seeming to be expecting a soft CPI print tomorrow, the USD has continued to weaken. In other news, The UK reported better than expected wage growth this morning (UK time) which has helped the GBP to remain strong, although there could be troubling times ahead for the

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Monday 10 July 16:50

Weekly review

Following last Friday's PCE data, I started the week wondering if the USD was shortable. The week started slowly with the US markets closed for independence day. Things livened up on Wednesday evening UK time thanks to the release of the fomc minutes, which came across as hawkish