Friday 15 September 07:40 UK time. The Euro weakness has abated for now and is showing a mild recovery after falling yesterday, i still think it will be tradeable short but it has a little too much momentum this morning. Meanwhile, the 'risk tone' is mildy positive following positive Data from china in the
Market close. Wednesday 13 September Today's slightly hotter CPI data from the US may have slightly disappointed dollar bulls but still keeps my long dollar bias in tact. Also, nothing has materially happened for me to change my short yen bias. The main focus tomorrow is Europe's interest rate decision, will
Tuesday 12 September 17:45 UK time. This morning's trade is still in play so my hands are tied in terms of placing a trade. But today's stand out performer has been the CAD, helped by rising oil price and last Friday's Canadian data. The JPY is weak and I think
Monday 11 September 14:30 UK time. With the US markets opening up I'd like to take a moment to remember the tragic event on this day in 2001. I remember it like it was yesterday and I can't even comprehend the pain of the families of lost ones. Forever in the worlds
Monday 11 September 08:15 UK time The big news over the weekend was from Japan and governor Ueda pulling out the verbal bazooka by saying that a quiet exit from easy monetary policy is appropriate. This have given the JPY strength against everything. If Japan does tighten it's policy, it will most likely be
Weekly review I would describe last week as an environment where it was difficult to form a conviction in a trade. Monday was a quiet day as it was labour day in the US and Canada. When Tuesday came and things got going, the theme was strong dollar due to the good
Friday 8 September 09:00 UK time. There is no change to the narative that has continued all week, yesterdays jobless data from the US continued the good news is bad news theme. During the overnight Asian session, more woes from China continue to give credence to USD strength. The consensus is still for a rate hike
Wednesday 6 September 08:00 UK time Slightly calmer tones overnight, china bought yuan to steady it's currency and weaken the USD. AUD report better than expected GDP. Japan tried verbal intervention, but I think the JPY is still shortable. Today's main event is services ISM from the US, a high reading could
Tuesday 5 September 17:00 UK time JPY weakness is the theme in US trading, in correlation with rising yields. The CAD is especially strong thanks to extended oil production cuts from Saudi Arabia. The risk to any JPY short trades would be intervention as USD JPY is over the 147 price that the BOJ didn'
Tuesday 5 September 08:40 UK time The European session begins, digesting overnight news: soft services PMI from China, RBA interest rate hold. Yields are up, stocks and oil down, the VIX is up (although still relatively low at 14). The dollar index is up and commodity currencies are under pressure. There are no top tier data
Viable opportunity Vs trade. With US markets closed for labour day (I hope you're enjoying the long weekend) it may be a slow Forex day. So I'd like to touch on a little psychology, and the difference between a viable opportunity and actually placing a trade. A good example of
Weekly review This week began with calm tones, helped by China's attempts to boost its economy. The good mood continued on Tuesday with 'bad news is good news' data from the US, which I felt created a 'risk on' opportunity. The dollar was so weak that
Friday 1 September 14:15 UK time. NFP has been reported, and although the number is a slight beat, the market has focused and the unemployment rate which is at its highest in 18 months. Sending us back to the bad news is good news narative. Stocks are up, yields are down and the dollar is weakening.
Thursday 31 August 18:20 UK time. Today's PCE data came in as forecast, in an ideal world I would have liked to see the number come down, this would have given us a continuation of the 'risk on' soft landing theme. But the as forecast data, combined with lower initial jobless claims
Thursday 31 August 09:30 UK time Another day, another important data release from the US. Today it's PCE, will the numbers continue the soft landing 'risk on' theme? With the USD and JPY a little stronger this morning (possibly profit taking ahead of the release) it's not an occasion I
Wednesday 30 August 18:30 UK time For the second day in a row, soft data from the US keeps the 'risk on' momentum going, the USD and JPY are weak, gold is up, the VIX is down. Soft landing is very much on the cards. A short USD or JPY trade is very viable.
Tuesday 29 August 15:20 UK time Disappointing US job openings and poor consumer confidence gives credence to no more rate hikes from the FED. Which has created a 'risk on' potential trade. Yields are down,the DXY is plummeting, stocks are up and the dollar is weakening. It's just a case of
