Weekly review. The week starting Monday 11 December was dominated by one thing: Mr Powells surprise 'dovish' shift at the FOMC meeting. Personally, I, (and most of the market) was expecting a pushback on the potential of rate cuts next year. But Mr Powell did the opposite and actually signaled
Soft European PMI data. Soft European PMI data takes the shine off the EUR, regardless of how positive the ECB try to sound about the potential of more hikes, the data is starting to suggest otherwise. It's a different story across the channel as positive service PMI data will keep the BOE
Race to cut. Following yesterday surprise announcement that the FED are planning rate cuts next year. Attention now turns to the other currencies and their future path of interest rates. Whilst we await today's EUR and GBP meetings. Here is a snapshot of the 'hawkisness' or 'dovishness'
Awaiting a fresh catalyst. Monday 11 December has been a fairly quiet day in the Forex market. The JPY has Been the standout weak currency following pushback on talks of policy change this month. I've not traded today but my hope is that the BOJ don't do anything at the
Weekly review. During the week starting Monday 4 December, I maintained my soft landing bias and the data still backs up that narrative. Although it was a difficult trading week, due to a breakdown in the stocks, bonds and currencies correlations. Stocks and bonds towed the line, with bond yields lower and
Up and down day for the USD. Today's NFP report was very good news for the USD, with all aspects pointing to a push back on rate cuts next year. The dollar strengthend accordingly. But later in the day, consumer inflation expectations and consumer confidence threw a spanner at dollar strength and the market was
Trade closed before NFP. I've closed yesterdays trade at break even before NFP. It's been a strange week in terms of the USD and a breakdown in correlations between bonds and stocks. Perhaps the market was too ambitious regarding rare cuts next year and has parred back a little. Next
JPY NEWS. Governor Ueda has spoken about the likely necessity of Japan exiting negative interest rates. This may still be some way off, but it has certainly given the JPY boost. Am I ready to long the yen off the back of this comment? Potentially. I always struggle longing the yen on
OPEC curve ball. Today OPEC announced a cut in future oil production, which, in the law of supply and demand, would increase the price of oil. If the price of oil goes up, that's a worry for the future course of inflation. And the market reacted accordingly, with moves that would
