John Elfed

I've been trading Forex for 6 years consistently profitable. I've been through all the emotions associated with trading and my quest is to share my knowledge in the hope it can help others.

Weekly review

I began the week starting Monday 27 January optimistic we might get a 'risk on' environment. But that optimism was immediately blown out of the water as news of an emerging AI company 'deepseek' caused concern for S&P 500 tech companies, NVIDIA in particular

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Thursday 30 January: little bit of limbo.

There has been a lot of information to take in this week. And currently, I find myself in a little bit of limbo in terms of having confidence in the direction of the currencies. Risk sentiment stabilised following the Deepseek led tech selloff, but the 'risk currencies' didn&

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NVIDIA under pressure.

Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 20 January was dominated by 'Trumps first week in office'. And the main take away from the infux of news was a 'risk on environment'. The positivity started even before the inauguration, when a leak suggested 'tariffs' wouldn't

Lower oil price, lower interest rates.

*Important: Current thoughts

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Live trade: take 2

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It's a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target. It's a CAD centric trade based on lower headline CPI plus the focus of tarrifs is currently on Canada, the trade is backed up by the tentatively positive risk environment. The risk to the trade

Live trade

Following lower headline Canadian CPI, combined with 'tariff' focus on Canada. I've entered AUD CAD long Photo to follow:

Inauguration calms the market.

The initial take away from 'Trumps first day in office' has been USD weakness. The possibility of hard hitting tariffs contributed to USD strength throughout December and January (the other factor was of course the strong US economy). But no mention of imminent 'hard hitting tariffs'

Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 13 January began with 'the market speculating' there would be no US rate cuts this year due to the strong US economy. From a trading point of view, another week of strong US data would have (likely) made the week a lot more straightforward,

Friday 17 January: Home without water.

Due to a burst water pipe in the local area, my home is currently without water. Apparently the burst pipe is situated underneath a river and it's very difficult to fix. It has disrupted the water supply to an area covering about 50 miles and it could be

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It a speculative 'risk on' trade with a 15 pip stop loss and 20 pip profit target for 1.3:1 risk reward. Whilst it isn't an extremely high conviction trade, the market has 'liked' the US data this week and earnings season has

Live trade

I've entered a speculative 'risk on' trade, AUD CHF, based on the markets liking of US data this week. Photo to follow:

Post CPI thoughts.

This morning's trade didn't last long as the market remained in a fairly positive mood post US PPI data. And the positivity remains following US CPI data, which, although inflation is still 'sticky', the data isn't too worrisome and any thoughts of

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The lower CPI 'should' encourage the BOE to speed up rate cuts. And although Tuesday's US PPI data was lower than forecast, it hasn't altered the markets view of 'higher for longer US rates'. It's a 30 pip stop loss

Live trade

Following lower than forecast UK CPI data, I've entered GBP USD short 'in the moment news trade'. Photo to follow:

US and UK data in focus.

The week began with the market pondering if the FED will cut rates at all this year. And USD strength continued during the first half of Monday. That strength waned by the time the US session got underway, in what could be deemed consolidation or profit taking. All eyes are

Weekly review

The week starting Monday 6 January was 'the first week proper' of the year, as institutional traders returned to their desks, meaning you could place merit behind any moves. And it was a week full of activity. The week began in a 'risk on' manner due

Currency overview.

Here is my current view of each individual currency: USD: By the 3rd quarter of 2024 it became apparent pricing for future FED rate cuts was over zealous due to the strong US economy and sticky inflation. That narrative remains with the added presence of the incoming Trump administrations '