Tuesday 26 November It's currently another one of those weeks where I either can't explain, or don't have confidence in the currencies moves. The week started with USD weakness, thanks to the appointment of Mr Bessent sending US yields lower. But I didn't have confidence
Monday 25 November: USD gaps lower The week begins with the news Scott Bessent will be given the role of treasury secretary. 'The market' seems to like the appointment with S&P futures above 6000. Whilst I don't think I'm prepared to short the USD on the news, the
Weekly review The week starting Monday 18 November began quietly with no news or data releases. And my thought was USD strength 'should' continue post Friday's positive US retail sales. But dollar strength didn't materialise in flat Monday trading. Things livened up on Tuesday, with an
Friday 22 November: High US service PMI US service PMI is reported at 57, much higher than expected and a quick look at the FED rate monitor tool shows a 54% possibility of a December rate cut, down from 60% yesterday. Conversely (both manufacturing and service) PMI data from Eur and GBP came in lower than expected.
Thursday 21 November: A strange week It's been what I would call a strange week in the Forex market. The stand out performers so far have been the CAD, thanks to positive data cutting back BOC rate cut bets. And the AUD, thanks to the still hawkish RBA and a dialing back of china
Trade photo It's a 25 pip stop loss with 38 pip profit target. As discussed, I believe either AUD, GBP or USD are viable long opportunities. I've chosen USD since it currently has the momentum. The risk to the trade is a resurfacing of Ukraine concerns. NVIDIA earnings.
Live trade The current 'calm environment' lends itself to interest rate differential trades. I'm currently inclined to look for AUD (hawkish RBA) GBP (high inflation data) or USD (higher for longer). Vs ...CHF, JPY, EUR I am still a little wary of BOJ 'intervention', therefore, I&
Tuesday 19 November: Walmart saves the day. The European session began with a wobble. A risk which has lay 'dormant' for a long time suddenly started to concern the market with the words 'nuclear weapons' being used in connection to Ukraine war. Causing stocks and bond yields to roll over in a '
Trade photo It a long USD trade 'support and resistance' trade. based on dollar strength, caused by the unwinding of FED rate cut bets due to the strong economy and the 'Trump trade'. It's a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target. I'
Live trade Unable to find a reason for Mondays USD weakness. I'm sticking with my 'long dollar' bias. I've entered USD CHF long 'support and resistance' trade. Email Photo to follow:
The 4 step fundamental Forex strategy The 4 step ‘fundamental’ Forex strategy. Gain enough knowledge to form an opinion on the market Combined that knowledge with ‘technical analysis' Assess the risks to any potential trade Make a decision you would stand by regardless of the outcome Then, by using a higher risk reward ratio on
Monday 18 November: USD takes a breather. A day bereft of major data releases and headlines sees the USD take a breather from its recent strength. And in fact, a skim through the 4hr charts of all the currencies against each other shows a certain neutrality across the board. The AUD is showing a little strength. Perhaps
Weekly review. During the week starting Monday 11 November there was really only one question to answer: which currency should you short Vs the USD? USD strength is completely understandable, essentially, when the FED started cutting rates it was universally thought the 'cutting cycle' would be swift. But the strength
Trade photo: It's a 30 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target, 1:1 'USD long' trade, due to the ongoing USD strength backed up by retail sales enforcing the 'US rates higher for longer narrative'. Asking for a new high is an ambitious profit
Live trade. There is a case to say I'm a little late to the party on this one, I would have preferred to enter 10 / 15 pips lower. But, due to positive US retail sales, I've once again entered USD CHF long. Photo to follow:
Trade photo It's a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target 'USD long' trade. The stop loss is behind a 1hr swing. I choose the CHF to short due to my belief the SNB is the most dovish central bank, plus the chart itself has plenty
Live trade. I have finally entered USD CHF long. Based on the current dominance of the USD. email photo to follow:
Psychology lesson. US CPI was reported in line with expectations (a little higher than the ideal disinflationary environment would like) , whilst not a huge concern, it does mean US Interest rates will likely remain a little higher than expected for a little while longer. Which essentially means we should keep the USD
US CPI on the agenda. The USD remains the dominant currency in town as US yields stay higher and the prospect of a FED pause in December is touted. I expect it would take a significantly lower CPI reading to derail dollar strength. In other news, the JPY remains weak despite higher PPI data. Soft
Monday 11 November The EUR begins the week on the back foot as the possibility of US tarrifs raises concerns for the eurozone growth, combined with political uncertainty in Germany and the EUR bounce from a couple of weeks ago appears to be over. Elsewhere, political uncertainty in Japan weighs on the yen.
Weekly review. There was a lot of information to take in during week starting Monday 4 November. Beginning with the US election. Which was forecast to be a very tight race but ultimately ended up being a convincing republican victory. Markets don't like uncertainty and whatever your political persuasion, the
Trade closed manually. For the record, to avoid weekend risk I have closed today's USD CAD trade for a small profit of +0.2
Trade photo. It's a Friday 1:1 risk reward with a 30 pip stop loss and 30 pip profit target, 'interest rate differential' trade. Based on the still overly dovish BOC and my belief the USD is likely to remain supported for the time being. Especially given once
Live trade Following on from my thoughts of 'interest rate' differential trades being back 'en vouge'. I believe the USD sell off 'post Powell,' to be overdone and I've entered USD CAD long. Photo to follow:
Thursday 7 november: A return of interest rate differentials? It's a very nice sight to see the VIX remaining below 16, stocks rising and the overall positive risk environment. USD CHN has reversed, which has bouyed the AUD and NZD. And I'm 'hopeful' the currencies will once again start behaving according to interest
