Weekly review This past week was dominated by the long dollar story. Particularly the early part of the week. The US 10year bond yield rose comfortabley above 4.5%, the S&P remained under pressure, the cause being the higher for longer narative. It's always a little tricky to
Thursday 28 September. European session. A bit of dollar weakness in this mornings European session, with the 'risk asset' currencies in positive territory. I can't see any particular news to support the positive mood, it may well be quarter end profit taking. My current position is to wait for the US
Wednesday 27 September 17:30 UK time. USD strength is unabating, backed up again today by strong data (durable goods) yields are still marching higher, the VIX is above 19 for the first time in a long time. Stocks and gold are on the verge of a technical breakdown. The higher for longer narative is really starting
Tuesday 26 September 20:25 UK time. Yesterdays GBP USD trade has completed at hit profit. Nothing has changed to alter my view that the USD is the only viable long at the moment. In fact, Target announcing they will close nine stores across the US has put pressure on the S&P and adds credence
Tuesday 26 September. 16:00 UK time. With yesterdays trade still running, my hands are tied in terms of placing another trade. But the narative remains the same, strong dollar, weak pound (and euro) the commodity currencies are still holding up well (which is interesting in a mildy negative stock environment and does bode well). I still
Monday 25 September 14:15 UK time. As the US markets start the week. With a light data calendar, the US 10year is above 4.5 on the higher for longer narative, the S&P is under a little pressure (not helped by negative property sector news from china). There is no news to change my
Weekly review This last week was filled by central bank decisions from the US, Britain and Japan (and also Switzerland). Plus inflation data from the UK and Canada created movement. Monday was a very quiet day, things started to get moving on Tuesday, with producer product data from Canada giving an indication
Update: UK PMI data A softer than forecast service sector only reiterates the potential of short GBP as the reading will help to confirm the falling inflation narative from the UK, thus heightening the possibility of no more rate hikes.
Friday 22 September 09:15 UK time Yesterdays USD GBP trade is still in play so my hands are currently tied in terms of placing a trade. But my short GBP bias remains following the BOE surprise hold. During the Asian session, Japan held its interest rate and essentially kicked the can down the road regarding a
Thursday 21 September. Post FOMC. As expected, the federal reserve delivered a 'hawkish hold'. The market was a little surprised by the projected 2024 end of year rate of 5.1%. It had been widely thought multiple rate cuts would come next year, but cold water has been thrown on that idea. The
Wednesday 20 September European session Much lower than forecast inflation data from the UK has weakened the pound, tomorrows interest rate statement and future guidance will be interesting, will it be one final hike? For now I think the pound is shortable into the decision. Plus the JPY has started to weaken again following a
Psychology lesson: Tuesday 19 September Having had another busy personal day, I've not been able to view the charts. I did have a look at 05:00 UK time but I didn't have much time. I was tempted by a CAD JPY long. As you know, the JPY is my preferred
Monday 18 September 18:30 UK time. Following a busy day personally (I got called into work to cover a shift) I've arrived home to see the Forex market has been quiet today, the euro has continued it's re-tracement following last week's sell off, possibly helped by a comment saying more
Weekly review Monday 11 September began with the Japanese yen gapping higher following comments over the weekend regarding potential tightening of monetary policy. Once the dust settled, it became apparent that this attempted at verbal intervention wasn't going to be enough to stem the tide of JPY weakness and yen
Friday 15 September 07:40 UK time. The Euro weakness has abated for now and is showing a mild recovery after falling yesterday, i still think it will be tradeable short but it has a little too much momentum this morning. Meanwhile, the 'risk tone' is mildy positive following positive Data from china in the
Market close. Wednesday 13 September Today's slightly hotter CPI data from the US may have slightly disappointed dollar bulls but still keeps my long dollar bias in tact. Also, nothing has materially happened for me to change my short yen bias. The main focus tomorrow is Europe's interest rate decision, will
Tuesday 12 September 17:45 UK time. This morning's trade is still in play so my hands are tied in terms of placing a trade. But today's stand out performer has been the CAD, helped by rising oil price and last Friday's Canadian data. The JPY is weak and I think
Monday 11 September 14:30 UK time. With the US markets opening up I'd like to take a moment to remember the tragic event on this day in 2001. I remember it like it was yesterday and I can't even comprehend the pain of the families of lost ones. Forever in the worlds
