Awaiting a fresh catalyst. Monday 11 December has been a fairly quiet day in the Forex market. The JPY has Been the standout weak currency following pushback on talks of policy change this month. I've not traded today but my hope is that the BOJ don't do anything at the
Weekly review. During the week starting Monday 4 December, I maintained my soft landing bias and the data still backs up that narrative. Although it was a difficult trading week, due to a breakdown in the stocks, bonds and currencies correlations. Stocks and bonds towed the line, with bond yields lower and
Up and down day for the USD. Today's NFP report was very good news for the USD, with all aspects pointing to a push back on rate cuts next year. The dollar strengthend accordingly. But later in the day, consumer inflation expectations and consumer confidence threw a spanner at dollar strength and the market was
Trade closed before NFP. I've closed yesterdays trade at break even before NFP. It's been a strange week in terms of the USD and a breakdown in correlations between bonds and stocks. Perhaps the market was too ambitious regarding rare cuts next year and has parred back a little. Next
JPY NEWS. Governor Ueda has spoken about the likely necessity of Japan exiting negative interest rates. This may still be some way off, but it has certainly given the JPY boost. Am I ready to long the yen off the back of this comment? Potentially. I always struggle longing the yen on
OPEC curve ball. Today OPEC announced a cut in future oil production, which, in the law of supply and demand, would increase the price of oil. If the price of oil goes up, that's a worry for the future course of inflation. And the market reacted accordingly, with moves that would
Wednesday 29 November: European session. With yesterday trade complete, the dollar weakness is now pulling back a little. This may well be profit taking ahead of tomorrow's PCE data. Currently, my 'decision' is to wait until the US open before forming a fresh opinion.
The waller bounce. Fed speaker Waller (a known hawk) gave a little boost to the 'risk environment' by mentioning potential future rate cuts. This only adds credence to the 'soft landing' narrative and a continuation of JPY or USD shorts. (I realise I'm sounding like a broken
The week ahead. The 'risk on soft landing' trade is the theme of the moment and I expect that to continue until something changes. On the data docket we have GDP from the US and the main event of the week will be the closely watched PCE data. The fundementals of
