John Elfed

I've been trading Forex for 6 years consistently profitable. I've been through all the emotions associated with trading and my quest is to share my knowledge in the hope it can help others.

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TV show recommendation.

The outcome of the Japanese election has created JPY strength. If you placed a short term JPY long based on the election, I would find it difficult to argue. But, personally, I think any JPY strength will be short lived. Essentially due to uncertainty creating a likelihood of a slower

Weekly Review

The S&P and NASDAQ once again hit all time highs during the week starting Monday 14 July. Which is a sign of confidence despite the ongoing external threats (tariffs / Middle East). I've noticed the current earnings season wasn't approached with as much trepidation as

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Wednesday 16 July: Trump v Powell, round 6.

A day that looked like it was drifting into a 'summer lull' kind of day, suddenly had bouts of volatility when the TRUMP / POWELL SAGA re-emerged. Which is making it difficult to hold an opinion at the moment. If the president wins the battle and the FED cut

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Monday 14 July

Despite a little bit of tariff noise, nothing has fundamentally altered my view that 'risk on' trades are viable, particularly short JPY. Although (with the exception of the strong USD, we've seen fairly lackluster movement today). Which I suspect can be put down to the market

Weekly Review

The week starting Monday 7 was a fairly sanguine week. With limited US data on the agenda, all eyes were on commentary surrounding the July 9 tariff deadline. Ultimately, any tariff concerns were be brushed aside when a 'fresh deadline' of August 2 was announced. Any attempts at

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Tuesday 8 July

RBA in focus

It's a week bereft of major US data. In the main it'll be up to the 'risk environment' to determine proceedings (which currently means tariff headlines). But we do have the RBA and RBNZ rate decisions to potentially create opportunities. First up, during Tuesday&

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Weekly Review

The week starting Monday 30 June began with the USD on the back foot in a continuation of the previous week's narrative. With the market anticipating at least two cuts from the FED before year end. Alongside USD weakness, the overall market mood remained positive, the S&

Trade closed manually. USD short anticipation trade?

I have closed yesterday's NZD JPY trade for a small profit of +0.6. (to avoid NFP risk). With an early close today due to independence day tomorrow, it's debatable whether there will be a post NFP opportunity. I do think there is a case to

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Wednesday 2 July

The general market mood remains positive, and particularly sentiment for the USD remains in the douldrums. All of a sudden, there is talk of three FED cuts by the end of the year (although I think that's a bit ambitious). A soft NFP report could cement multi year

Weekly Review

USD weakness was the stand out theme for the week starting Monday 22 June. Abated Middle East and tariff concerns, softening US data and hawkish FED board members turning dovish, all combined to ensure the dollar was the week's laggard. It's interesting that the EUR and

Friday 27 June

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