Weekly review The week starting Monday 15 December was dominated by three central bank decisions. And they all entertained in their own way. But before the 'main events", there was the small matter of PMI data, with the data (particularly in the US and UK) indicating 'still high'
Trade photo USD CAD has been on my radar for a while and considering recent events plus the price of oil is coming down again, fundamentally, USD CAD 'should' revisit recent highs. Therefore I've entered a 'interest rate differential' trade. Given the recent volatility, It'
Live trade There is a collection of tradable options at the moment. Given USD CAD is showing signs of a reversal following a pullback, I've entered USD CAD long Photo to follow:
Thursday 19 December. A busy 24 hours. There has been a lot of information to take in this last 24 hours. And in the main it's left us with positive conclusions. Starting with FOMC, as expected a 'hawkish cut' was delivered. Due to the continued strong data coming out if the US, it
Trade closed manually pre FOMC I have just manually closed today's GBP NZD trade for a profit of +1. To be fair, there is a good chance the trade will carry on to the 1.5 profit target through the FOMC decision. But nonetheless, I feel it's prudent to close the
Trade photo GBP NZD has a high ATR, so it's a 60 pip stop loss with 90 pip profit target. The trade is based on the potential of UK rates remaining higher for longer compared the NZD. Negative china news has compounded NZD weakness and sent it below that 4hr
Live trade Following 'still sticky' UK inflation and poor Chinese news overnight, I've entered GBP NZD long Photo to follow:
*side note. If (like me) you're waiting for the 'right time' to enter a USD or GBP trade, it's worth noting the recent 'opening gaps' as the market re-opens at 10pm UK time. Particularly on CHF pairs. It may be prudent to wait until
Tuesday 17 December PMI data on Monday (particularly US and UK) highlighted 'still high' service sector inflation, ensuring the FED and BOE are likely to maintain a cautious rate cut approach. And keeps the USD and GBP on the 'to long list'. Backed up by today's US
Weekly review Week starting Monday 9 December: The week began with positive news out of china, a pledge to support the economy no matter what it takes. And following the recent period of 'unconventional movement', it was very pleasing to see the currencies react in a 'standard risk on&
Trade manually closed I have closed today's USD CHF trade for for a result of break even. It's not too much of a surprise the trade didn't 'kick on' in fairly quiet Friday trading. Weekly review to follow. Wishing you a lovely week
Trade photo Just when I thought it was going to be another no trade week. USD is showing signs of strength. ING see no reason to bail out of USD longs and I currently agree. I've shorted the CHF based on yesterday rate cut with a potential willingness to enter
Live trade I've entered USD CHF long for a Friday afternoon 1:1 based on my narrative from yesterday photo and explanation to follow:
Staying patient Earlier today I was eyeing up a USD CHF long, with half an eye on USD CAD long. I didn't quite have confidence at the time to place a trade and was waiting for a stop loss I felt comfortable with. I've since been to my
Thursday 12 December. Based on the 0.5 SNB rate cut, with a 'willingness' to enter negative rate territory if necessary. Combined with higher US PPI data perhaps indicating a December FED cut isn't quite as certain as the market thinks. I currently like the thought of USD CHF
Tuesday 10 December: slightly dovish RBA. The main news of the day has been a 'slightly dovish twist' from the RBA. The AUD fell on the news, I wasn't at the charts at the time, if I was, would I have traded it? Well, it was a fundamental cause with the '
Monday 9 December Yesterday I was hoping for a 'return to the norm' meaning a realignment currency movent with the positive risk environment. And thanks to positivity out of China (a pledge to support the economy no matter what) we currently have the 'risk currencies behaving as they normally do
Weekly review I am getting a little tired of saying: ' it was a other week where I found it difficult to form a conviction in the direction of the currencies'. But, I can only tell you what I'm thinking and the week starting Monday 2 December was another
No trade week? Choppy trading continues this week, my average trades per week has been gradually dwindling as I've found it harder and harder to gain conviction in the future direction of each currency. It wasn't too long ago I was averaging just over 3 trades per week, which
Muddy waters The hangover from 'strange November' trading continues, at the moment....Uncertainty once again reigns. Confusion over the incoming Trump administrations intentions for the dollar appear to be muddying the water. Will hard tarrifs be implemented? causing inflation, higher yields and a strong dollar? Or is the threat of
Weekly review Similar to most of November, I found it difficult to form a conviction during the week starting Monday the 24th. Which is an an example of how things can change and to never get complacent. Only a few weeks ago, the USD was dominant, the strong economy caused the market
Trade photo Given that it's 'Thanks giving' in the US, plus, what I deem to have been 'strange movements' this week, there is a case to sit on the sidelines until next week. But, AUD is gaining strength post Bullock speech (no indication of rate cuts
Tuesday 26 November It's currently another one of those weeks where I either can't explain, or don't have confidence in the currencies moves. The week started with USD weakness, thanks to the appointment of Mr Bessent sending US yields lower. But I didn't have confidence
Monday 25 November: USD gaps lower The week begins with the news Scott Bessent will be given the role of treasury secretary. 'The market' seems to like the appointment with S&P futures above 6000. Whilst I don't think I'm prepared to short the USD on the news, the
