Service ISM below expectations. Just when it appeared that even June was going to be too soon for a US rate cut ( today's ADP employment figures adding to that narrative). along came US service ISM (below expectations) and weakened the USD considerably. The recent strong data from the US means that I&
US OPEN. US bonds above 4.3, S&P falling (due to higher bonds plus the drop in Tesla today) the VIX has risen above 15. All in all it's a mildly 'risk off' mood. But it's not echoed in the forex market as the
Tuesday 2 April. With yesterday's trade complete, nothing has happened to change my view. Attempts from the PBOC to sell USD CHN and the BOJ's verbal warnings has not affected USD strength. And whilst 'the market' is only pricing in 2 US rate cuts this year, I
The week ahead. *Note..European daylight saving returns US ET to GMT-5. Improved PMI data from China over the weekend could underpin the AUD & NZD at the beginning of the week. Monday 1 April is a bank holiday in Europe, but US traders will be at their desks. Each week that passes
Weekly review. A fairly muted week in the forex market compared to the central bank bonanza the previous week. But there were opportunities non the less, mainly deriving from the swiss franc. A currency I've not traded for a few years, which serves as a reminder to always expect the
Core PCE. Core PCE data broadly in line with expectations, personal spending is up. All in all, the data keeps a US rate cut later than June on the table and I expect to still be looking for long USD opportunities next week. In other news, intervention warnings from Japan have got
US GDP and Jobless claims. THE USD'S muted reaction to positive GDP and Jobless claims (both showing a still resilient economy) suggests to me there could be some quarter end profit taking on the horizon. On the face of it, today's fundamentals suggest a EUR USD short (or another USD CHF
Struggling CHF. With yesterday's USD CHF trade complete. The CHF is struggling against every currency and may continue to do so for a while, based on interest rate differential. And I think any 1hr pullbacks creating nice support are tradable. Particularly Vs USD or a buoyant AUD. Or, as mentioned
Monday 25 March. US open. The USD is a litter softer today, pulling back from the highs of last week. And not kicked on from the comments from Bostic as I thought it might. Possibly due to 'stimulus' from china. Which has boosted the AUD in particular. There is a case to say
The week ahead. Over the weekend, comments from FED board member Raphael Bostic suggesting his preference is for only one .25bp rate cut this year is a very hawkish comment. Bostic is a voting board member and his words carry weight. This could see a resumption of USD strength at the start of
GBP under pressure. Following yesterday's interest rate decision the GBP has been sold, compounded by today's mildly disappointing retail sales. Although the BOE statement was not particularly 'dovish', the two 'dissenters' previously voting for a rate hike have changed their mind. And the market now
