Weekly review The week starting Monday 15 April was largely dominated by concerns over an escalation to the awful situation in the Middle East. The market was waiting for Israel's response following Iran's previous attack. Another contributing factor towards the negative environment was the FED's doubling
Trade closed manually For the record, today's trade has been closed manually for +0.9 Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com Enjoy your weekend.
Israel response. Reaction contained for now. It's been on the cards all week, during the Asian session Israel launched a drone attack on Iran. The initial reaction was 'risk off' as you would expect, but all things considered, so far the negativity appears contained. It was mentioned on CNCB earlier in the
Psychology lesson: Thursday 18 April. With yesterday's trade still running, a word I've come across a lot this week is 'consolidating'. USD JPY is consolidating below 155. US 10year bond yield is consolidating above 4.5. Whilst market sentiment is a little nervy (due to higher bond yields, Middle
Market close. The USD remains in control thanks to the 'later rate cut narrative' backed up by FED chair Powell's speech today. Also today, the BOC's Macklem and BOE's Bailey sounded fairly dovish in comparison. Tomorrow's CPI data from the UK will
Tuesday 16 April. The risk to yesterday's trade was concerns over the middle east. And a comment from Israel caused a brief spike of JPY strength. That strength subsequently reversed, which leaves me back square one, with a long USD Bias V's JPY or CHF. And the risk to
Weekly review. It was a slow start to the week starting Monday 8 April, as it appeared 'the market' was waiting for Wednesday's CPI. The number came in higher than forecast, the FED has consistently reiterated a data dependent approach. And the data keeps forcing 'the market&
Psychology lesson: Assessing the risks to a trade. As part of any trading strategy, it is essential to be aware of and assess the risks to a potential trade. When trading forex, I consider two types of risk. 1: The financial risk. 2: A particular cause for a trade to stop out. Assessing the financial risk is fairly
Earnings season in focus. As the potential date of the FED's first rate cut keeps getting pushed back, plus the numbers of cuts keeps shrinking ( 3? 2? 1?). The question is, how long before the stock market starts to feel the pinch? I would say not whilst US growth remains consistent. Which
USD in control. Following yesterday's 'hot' CPI, the USD has maintained its strength as it appears June will be too soon for the FED to cut rates. Today we have US PPI, where I suspect it will take a significantly low number to derail the dollar strength. It will
CPI on the agenda plus yesterday's trade manually closed. Due to not wanting to hold any risk during the upcoming RBNZ decision, I have manually closed yesterday's AUD CHF trade for a small profit of +0.3 It's been a quiet start to the forex week as it appears 'the market' is waiting
Weekly review. Week starting Monday 1 April was an up, down, up week for the USD in terms of economic data. Starting with manufacturing ISM reported better than expected, keeping the 'higher for longer' narrative as the market continued to speculate a US rate cut could come later than June.
Friday 5 APRIL. Concerns over an escalation in the middle east have thankfully faded and my 'risk on' bias remains intact. Over to NFP... as long as the numbers are more or less in line with expectations, the positivity should remain. And hopefully, 'risk on' trades will still be
April 4, market close. Concerns over the middle east crept into the market late in the day, sending stocks and bonds yields lower in a 'classic risk off mood'. I'm not of a mind to play a risk off trade currently. But it does unfortunately put any 'risk on&
Time to short the USD? After a few weeks of positive data suggesting a later US rate cut than June and possibly only 2 cuts this year... It's not taken much for the market to jump back on the 'short USD' bandwagon. And today's jobless claims data coupled with
