Trade photo. It's a 'soft landing risk on trade'. With a 24 pip stop loss and 36 pip profit target. The stop loss is behind three 15min swings. The risk to the trade is if the market has a change of heart at the US open. Or if
In line GDP and slightly higher jobless claims appease the market: live trade. Today's data has taken a little of the recent fear out of market. US yields are dropping, the VIX has dropped a little and the S&P should like the news at the US open. The USD is suffering, but I'm not prepared to short
Higher for longer narrative takes hold. There is a mildly negative sentiment in the air as the VIX rises above 14, bond yields are climbing and the S&P is negative as a realisation that a US cut may still be a little further away than hoped. And it's a narrative that'
Tuesday 28 May With no change to my preference of 'interest rate differential trades'. I'm currently waiting for support to hold, followed by a little push up (see photo). Then I'll be ready to short the JPY. Likely Vs the NZD, but (in my view) there is
The week ahead. It's a quiet data docket today as most of the developed world is on 'bank holiday'. The Forex market is open, and often, you do find if there is a prevailing trend, the currencies often grind in the direction of that trend. Although there is nothing
Weekly review. I found the week starting Monday 20 May a slightly frustrating week, as my bias for the currencies didn't quite align with the 'price action'. I felt a hawkish RBNZ should have seen the NZD stronger than it was. The AUD was fairly weak and I
Trade closed manually Apologies for the lack of narrative today, I've had a hectic day. And due to the fact I'm heading back out until later this evening, and given that consumer confidence is up, combined with slightly lower inflation expectations, I think the USD may meander into the
Quick note. A more hawkish than expected FOMC minutes has created a 'risk off sentiment' but it doesn't alter my view of looking for short JPY or CHF opportunities. In fact, the more they strengthen the better. And I maintain my position of waiting for a 'nice
The state of play. FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings, NZD retail sales. Monday's AUD JPY trade has finally stopped out. And I'm slightly perplexed by the lack of appetite for the 'risk on' currencies today. The VIX is still at 12, the S&P is meandering around all time highs. The US 10 year is
Hawkish RBNZ makes NZD Longs look attractive. A hawkish RBNZ meeting has strengthend NZD, as it brings into question whether the first cut will be held off until next year. And makes NZD Longs a very attractive option. Particularly as a 'risk on: short JPY Or CHF trade. But also NZD CAD is very viable considering
*important* Yesterday's trade. Plus upcoming RBNZ. Yesterday's AUD JPY trade is still ongoing. But it came within half a pip of the stop loss, which is an example of why it's essential to trade with a broker that has very tight spreads. But to also be aware: does the buy price widen?
Weekly review. Ever since the 'goldilocks' NFP report at the beginning of the month, the market has been in an optimistic mood. And the optimism continued throughout the week starting Monday 13 May. Tuesday's PPI gave a 'brief scare' as it appeared inflation was still too
Friday 17 May. FED officials trying to remain as hawkish as possible has stabilised the USD. but all in all, nothing has altered my view that 'risk on' short JPY or CHF trades are on the table. A look at the 4hr JPY charts does make me think yen weakness is
The state of play. It currently appears all is rosey in the markets garden. US data is (finally) softening just enough to warrant a rate cut, but not enough to cause concern. The S&P is hitting all time highs, bond yields are dripping lower, the VIX remains low, earnings season has once
Retail sales and CPI on the agenda. Fairly straightforward, similar to yesterday, the preferred outcome of today's data would be a backing up of the 'soft landing narrative'. Which means not too hot, not too cold (goldilocks scenario). And would likely induce more risk on possibilities of short JPY, CHF or possibly even
Reaction to PPI The initial reaction was a knee jerk response to the higher than expected month on month reading. But this is apparently due to a revision lower last time and all things considered it's not as high as it appears. Which for me, means short JPY or CHF trades
US data on the agenda, what to look for? Ever since the 'soft' NFP number a couple of weeks ago, there has been a sense of ' soft landing optimism' in the air. Today sees the release of PPI (which is an inflation metric) and the 'ideal' outcome would be for a below forecast
Monday 13 May. It's been a quiet start to the week, nothing has fundamentally altered my view of short JPY or CHF trades. It currently appears September is still on the table for the first rate cut from the FED. The JPY weakness has continued in particular, and any 1hr swings
Weekly review. The week starting Monday 6 May was bereft of significant US data, which led to a relatively quiet week. The vix fell below 13 and with no signs of intervention the JPY was the laggard. The only noteworthy US data came on Thursday and Friday, US jobless claims rose more
