Monday 9 December Yesterday I was hoping for a 'return to the norm' meaning a realignment currency movent with the positive risk environment. And thanks to positivity out of China (a pledge to support the economy no matter what) we currently have the 'risk currencies behaving as they normally do
Weekly review I am getting a little tired of saying: ' it was a other week where I found it difficult to form a conviction in the direction of the currencies'. But, I can only tell you what I'm thinking and the week starting Monday 2 December was another
No trade week? Choppy trading continues this week, my average trades per week has been gradually dwindling as I've found it harder and harder to gain conviction in the future direction of each currency. It wasn't too long ago I was averaging just over 3 trades per week, which
Muddy waters The hangover from 'strange November' trading continues, at the moment....Uncertainty once again reigns. Confusion over the incoming Trump administrations intentions for the dollar appear to be muddying the water. Will hard tarrifs be implemented? causing inflation, higher yields and a strong dollar? Or is the threat of
Weekly review Similar to most of November, I found it difficult to form a conviction during the week starting Monday the 24th. Which is an an example of how things can change and to never get complacent. Only a few weeks ago, the USD was dominant, the strong economy caused the market
Trade photo Given that it's 'Thanks giving' in the US, plus, what I deem to have been 'strange movements' this week, there is a case to sit on the sidelines until next week. But, AUD is gaining strength post Bullock speech (no indication of rate cuts
Tuesday 26 November It's currently another one of those weeks where I either can't explain, or don't have confidence in the currencies moves. The week started with USD weakness, thanks to the appointment of Mr Bessent sending US yields lower. But I didn't have confidence
Monday 25 November: USD gaps lower The week begins with the news Scott Bessent will be given the role of treasury secretary. 'The market' seems to like the appointment with S&P futures above 6000. Whilst I don't think I'm prepared to short the USD on the news, the
Weekly review The week starting Monday 18 November began quietly with no news or data releases. And my thought was USD strength 'should' continue post Friday's positive US retail sales. But dollar strength didn't materialise in flat Monday trading. Things livened up on Tuesday, with an
Friday 22 November: High US service PMI US service PMI is reported at 57, much higher than expected and a quick look at the FED rate monitor tool shows a 54% possibility of a December rate cut, down from 60% yesterday. Conversely (both manufacturing and service) PMI data from Eur and GBP came in lower than expected.
Thursday 21 November: A strange week It's been what I would call a strange week in the Forex market. The stand out performers so far have been the CAD, thanks to positive data cutting back BOC rate cut bets. And the AUD, thanks to the still hawkish RBA and a dialing back of china
Trade photo It's a 25 pip stop loss with 38 pip profit target. As discussed, I believe either AUD, GBP or USD are viable long opportunities. I've chosen USD since it currently has the momentum. The risk to the trade is a resurfacing of Ukraine concerns. NVIDIA earnings.
Live trade The current 'calm environment' lends itself to interest rate differential trades. I'm currently inclined to look for AUD (hawkish RBA) GBP (high inflation data) or USD (higher for longer). Vs ...CHF, JPY, EUR I am still a little wary of BOJ 'intervention', therefore, I&
Tuesday 19 November: Walmart saves the day. The European session began with a wobble. A risk which has lay 'dormant' for a long time suddenly started to concern the market with the words 'nuclear weapons' being used in connection to Ukraine war. Causing stocks and bond yields to roll over in a '
Trade photo It a long USD trade 'support and resistance' trade. based on dollar strength, caused by the unwinding of FED rate cut bets due to the strong economy and the 'Trump trade'. It's a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target. I'
Live trade Unable to find a reason for Mondays USD weakness. I'm sticking with my 'long dollar' bias. I've entered USD CHF long 'support and resistance' trade. Email Photo to follow:
The 4 step fundamental Forex strategy The 4 step ‘fundamental’ Forex strategy. Gain enough knowledge to form an opinion on the market Combined that knowledge with ‘technical analysis' Assess the risks to any potential trade Make a decision you would stand by regardless of the outcome Then, by using a higher risk reward ratio on
Monday 18 November: USD takes a breather. A day bereft of major data releases and headlines sees the USD take a breather from its recent strength. And in fact, a skim through the 4hr charts of all the currencies against each other shows a certain neutrality across the board. The AUD is showing a little strength. Perhaps
Weekly review. During the week starting Monday 11 November there was really only one question to answer: which currency should you short Vs the USD? USD strength is completely understandable, essentially, when the FED started cutting rates it was universally thought the 'cutting cycle' would be swift. But the strength
Trade photo: It's a 30 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target, 1:1 'USD long' trade, due to the ongoing USD strength backed up by retail sales enforcing the 'US rates higher for longer narrative'. Asking for a new high is an ambitious profit
Live trade. There is a case to say I'm a little late to the party on this one, I would have preferred to enter 10 / 15 pips lower. But, due to positive US retail sales, I've once again entered USD CHF long. Photo to follow:
Trade photo It's a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target 'USD long' trade. The stop loss is behind a 1hr swing. I choose the CHF to short due to my belief the SNB is the most dovish central bank, plus the chart itself has plenty
Live trade. I have finally entered USD CHF long. Based on the current dominance of the USD. email photo to follow:
Psychology lesson. US CPI was reported in line with expectations (a little higher than the ideal disinflationary environment would like) , whilst not a huge concern, it does mean US Interest rates will likely remain a little higher than expected for a little while longer. Which essentially means we should keep the USD
