A waiting game.

Today's US retail sales gave the dollar a lift, the data suggests a 0.25bp cut is warranted rather than the 0.5 the market has been pricing in. Does that make the USD longable? Arguably an 'in the moment' USD JPY long was tradable in correlation with rising US yields. But only as a short term trade (something like a 20 pip stop loss). That moment has now gone. And in terms of a 'standard trade' I don't want to long the USD ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting.

An interesting article by Adam Button on Forex live ( A seven day winning streak for stocks....) points out the fine balancing act chair Powell has ahead of him tomorrow.

In other news, lower than forecast Canadian CPI should keep the CAD on the 'to short list' but the CAD strengthened following the data release. Which highlights how difficult it is to short the CAD when the USD has strength.

So, for me, once again it's a case of staying patient and waiting for the moment I can say "even if this trade stops out, I'll still think I should have taken it".

Which currently means waiting until after the FOMC meeting.

Feel free to email any questions: johnelfedforexblog@gmail.com